Will the court rule in favor of district courts overruling executive decisions? Not likely.
The Office of Special Counsel is an executive branch agency with a political appointee in charge. That appointee is not tied to anything sort of Senate confirmation and can be fired for a variety of causes.
One of the key roles this person plays is overseeing complaints and issues with budget waste and/or fraud. In less than a month the new Administration has uncovered over a half trillion in fraud and waste and they are just getting started. This person sat on his hands and did nothing. Even if he were to argue that he didn't notice or see anything regarding this waste and fraud, it is inconceivable that he would argue that there is no reason for termination when this fraud was happening on his watch.
Ultimately there is no HR department in the executive branch of the Government and the courts should not have authority to tell a duly elected President what does and what does not constitute a legitimate reason for firing. That being said, the President could reinstate him, give him a direct order to open up investigations on several top Democrats and then fire him when he refuses. The man is not going to last on this job and filing in a district federal court to stop that is an exercise in futility.
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