Will the GOP take over the Senate in 2024?

Looks like a pretty good map for Republicans

So with Joe Manchin deciding not to run again, the chances of Democrats holding that seat is next to nothing. So moving into 2024 we can really expect that we are looking at a starting base of 50-50.

So which seats are up and who is vulnerable? Here is a list:

GOP with last election percentages or PVI for open races:

• John Barrasso - Wyoming 67%

• Open - Utah +13

• Roger Wicker - Mississippi 59%

• Deb Fischer - Nebraska 58%

• Kevin Cramer - North Dakota 55%

• Marsha Blackburn - Tennessee 55%

• Josh Hawley - Missouri 52%

• Open - Indiana +11

• Rick Scott - Florida 50%

• Ted Cruz - Texas 51%

Who in this list is really vulnerable? My guess is that the Democrats will target Ted Cruz in Texas and possibly Rick Scott in Florida. Cruz won a close race against Beto and Scott barely edged out Nelson in Florida. Obviously the left will throw the kitchen sink at the hated Cruz which is why I would see him as the most vulnerable. But Florida has moved well right over the past six years and Rick Scott is fairly popular. What sort of play the Democrats can make there is questionable in 2024. An open Indiana seat seems the next likeliest seat for the Democrats to make a run at, but even that is a long shot. Josh Hawley won by only six in Missouri, but Trump won that state by 17 points. Is that really in play? Moving past those four races and you have almost sure bets across the rest of the board.

DEM with last election percentages or PVI for open races:

• Mazie Hirono - Hawaii 71%

• Kirsten Gillibrand - New York 67%

• Bernie Sanders - Vermont 67%

• Sheldon Whitehouse - Rhode Island 61%

• Elizabeth Warren - Massachusetts 60%

• Chris Murphy - Connecticut 60%

• Amy Klobuchar - Minnesota 60%

• Maria Cantwell - Washington 58%

• Open - Maryland +14

• Open - Delaware +7

• Tim Kaine - Virginia 57%

• Marin Heinrich - New Mexico 54%

• Angus King - Maine 54%

• Bob Menendez/open - New Jersey 54%

• Bob Casey Jr - Pennsylvania - 55%

• Tammy Baldwin - Wisconsin 55%

• Open - Michigan +1

• Sherrod Brown - Ohio 53%

• Jacky Rosen - Nevada 50%

• Kyrsten Sinema - Arizona 50%

• Jon Tester - Montana 50%

• Open - West Virginia GOP+22

So here we have a virtual who is who in vulnerable candidates. Assuming a pick up in West Virginia, you have three red or purple state Democrats who garnered only 50% of the vote six years ago in an off Presidential year. Jon Tester in the red state of Montana seems the next most vulnerable to me running in a plus 11 state for the GOP. Who knows what will happen in Arizona with Sinema running as an independent. We have Jacky Rosen in Nevada who barely won in a state that Trump is currently leading Biden in polling. Ohio has moved well right since 2018 and Sherrod Brown will have a big target on his back. An open seat in Michigan is certainly a possibility. In decent election cycle for the GOP the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seats are easily in play. So I would say you have one in the bag, Tester on the ropes, and six other possible pick ups.

Bottom line: The reality is that the GOP will be playing offense this cycle and the Democrats will be playing defense. The GOP really only needs to not blow any of the obvious races and then win one of the many vulnerable Democratic seats to win back the Senate. They are probably expecting 51-52 seats and hoping for 54-55. On the flip side, the Democrats are likely hoping for a 50-50 split if they can run the table on the vulnerable seats they will be protecting. I am sure they will make an effort for show in Texas and Florida, but who knows if they really expect to compete. They might be happy just holding 48-49 seats and figuring they can make things difficult on a small GOP majority as they are currently doing in the House.