Will Biden drop out - Part XVII

As long as polls show him within striking range, I think he sticks around.

The idea of Biden dropping out becomes harder and harder as time goes on. The longer he stays in the race and wins delegates, the more complicated replacing him at the convention would become.

That being true, every time another bad poll comes out, all of the speculation, opinions, and public statements become bolder. As more of these polls accumulate, more and more people seem on board with the idea that he should step down.

However, it is clear that Biden (and his puppeteers) do not want him to drop out and they could be banking on the idea that Trump gets convicted of a crime and provides Biden with the path to victory. While the polls are not good for Biden right now, they are still close enough that a criminal conviction of Trump could change the landscape. It is well known that the Biden team has been the lynchpin in all of these charges. Both Bragg and Wade have been consulting with White House attorneys throughout all of this, and everyone clearly understands that Jack Smith is Biden's personal attack dog here. In other words, they still have a plan to win reelection and it revolves around the concept of Trump standing trial in the middle of the election and being found guilty of "something" before election day.

Now some polling suggests that a conviction would work to put this race back to around a 50/50 prospect for Biden. But I have to also look at the fact that Trump has already been found guilty of sexual assault and his company has been found guilty of business fraud. Between the two of these verdicts, Trump is looking at over a half billion dollars in judgements and fines.

Yet, this has not helped Biden or the Democrats even a little. In fact, his numbers seem to have gone up since those two high profile cases have gone against him. It's almost as if the general public understands that these are political charges and are not really holding them against him, and these politicized charges could even be helping him. It is well known that the concept of a "mug shot" giving his opponents something to use against him has backfired. The mugshot became almost a badge of honor and is said to have been helping him with certain voters.

Of course, if Trump were to be acquitted or see a mistrial due to hung jury, these trials will likely help solidify him. I am not sure that an obvious partisan conviction (such as the NY charge) would have as much affect as some believe, especially if he was able to appeal. Anything legal that is left up in the air is going to work to benefit him. These charges all stem from events that took place years ago, and the fact that he would still be a free man years later is a statement in and of itself.

But I digress back to the second big problem that Democrats have with Biden. If he were to drop out, who replaces him and what Democrat could beat Trump? Polling suggests that Biden is the strongest candidate in most every poll. The only exception is the random poll here and there showing Michelle Obama performing higher. But Michelle Obama is an unknown other than the last name and who knows how many poll respondents are confused when they hear the name Obama. With all of the policy problems that the Democrats have right now, are people going to want an unproven non-politician to run our country based on their last name?

The reality is that many people in the Democratic Party have already appointed Kamala Harris as the next nominee and there will be hell to pay if it is not her. Problem is that she won't be any better of a candidate than Biden would be. It makes little sense for the Democratic Party to ask Biden to step aside when he is polling better than any of the viable political candidates that might step up to the plate.