Who is winning the showdown?

We can go straight to the generic ballot to see which direction things are moving.

So it is a gradual movement, but movement non-the-less, and it is definitely moving in the direction of GOP. We are currently looking at a 1.7% lead for the Democrats, which has been creeping down. But looking back eight years to Trump's first term, the Democrats led by closer to 8% at this same time. That is a significant difference.

While some Democrats might point to media polls saying slightly more people blame the GOP than the Democrats, the reality is that where it matters (potential mid-term voters) the Democrats seem to be losing (rather than gaining) ground. The longer this goes on the worse this might become. If the healthcare crisis argument is not moving potential voters today, how is it suddenly going to start moving when real pain starts to kick in for Americans.

The problem is simple. Again, while some Democratic strategists are suggesting that the Party is doing well sticking to their talking points about healthcare, it starts to become logically clear that they are providing a "reason" for closing down the government, while the GOP is simply demanding that we pass a continuing resolution. This does place the onus on the Democrats to convince people that their demands are worthy of the turmoil and pain that the government shutdown will incur on people. It can only logically be the Republican's fault if you believe that the Democrats are justified in closing it down. The more problems the shutdown creates, the more pressure there is to make this argument really a bigger crisis than the crisis that is being created by the shut-down.

Now obviously when it comes to politics, people are not always logical. But they still have feelings and can see some things that are obvious. As long as the GOP maintains that they want the government reopened with a continuing resolution, they are providing an obvious solution to the shut-down problems. What the Democrats are doing takes way more arguments to get from here to there and many more chances to lose people along the way. I suspect that the pressure will grow on them, not Republicans... as the questions about what is a worse crisis (healthcare of a shutdown) becomes more relevant.