Where are we at with these cabinet nominees

We have never before seen more pearl clutching over cabinet picks than we have over the past few weeks.

Obviously after Gaetz dropped out the Democrats set their sights on Pete Hegseth. A few days ago the odds on Hegseth being confirmed had dropped to around 10%. He is climbing back up a little, but the money is still on him not being confirmed.

It sounds like he has at least two hard Republican no votes in Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. Can anyone even suggest these two are real Republicans anymore? Old turtle head McConnell has also expressed doubts as has Joni Ernst. While there is some suggestion that there are others on the fence, it would seem more likely than not that if the vote was held today that he would be within striking distance.

Collins may or may not be on her last legs as a Senator, Murkowski seems set on being a thorn in the GOP side, and McConnel is pretty much a lame duck Senator at this point. None of them have much to gain or lose by taking either side in this fight.

I would argue that if it came down to Joni Ernst, that she does have something to gain or lose as she obviously has aspirations above and beyond being a Senator. But unless she wants to switch Parties, being the person who undermined a big confirmation battle would put a big dent in those chances. People in the Trump circle have a long memory when it comes to these things, and unless Ernst believes that the GOP is going to swing back to their old ways after Trump is out, she could be committing career suicide unless others in the GOP decide to also vote against Hegseth and give her cover.

Above and beyond Hegseth, there is a lot of screaming from the left about Tulsi Gabbard and Russian collusion (they cannot get enough of the boogieman that is Russia). But so far that has not extended into the GOP ranks. Obviously the Democrats are going to fight tooth and nail against Kash Patel (whom they seem to hate almost as much as they hate Trump), but there has not been much breaking of the GOP ranks on that one as of yet. RFK Jr has his detractors as well, but seems reasonable well positioned to squeak on by. As you can see by the Polymarket chart there, the rest of the nominees don't seem to have much reason to doubt their confirmation. Perhaps something comes up on the hearings or what-not, but it looks like the lion's share of these are non-controversial (thank god).

Rumors were that Trump was the one who ultimately sank the Gaetz nomination and asked him to step away. He did the opposite with Hegseth by coming to his defense and drawing a line in the sand for his GOP Senators. Vote for my guy or else, seemed to be the message. Hegseth followed up with the idea that he is not going anywhere, which is going to force GOP Senators to vote against him, if they want to stop it. Much easier one might believe to gently "push" someone out as they did with Gaetz, than to have to publicly vote against a Trump nominee right now.

Trump swept all of the battleground states when almost nobody expected him to. He already lost one confirmation battle here, but can he close out the rest without another loss? Time will tell. Maybe people shouldn't be so quick to bet against the President elect.