My calculated results (Harris + 2.06) within 0.14 points of Silver's (Harris +2.2).
Next thing you know, I will have a result left of what Silver is coming up with? How weird would that be?
In the past, 538 (when run by Silver) calculated their averages out well left of your normal polling averages. Granted, RCP is still sitting at 1.7 for a head-to-head and 1.9 for multi-candidate, so 2.2 is technically left of that. But 2.2 it is actually right on par with my own 2.25 for the relatively straight average of 56 different pollsters. Something has changed. Either the bias-adjustments and influences being calculated by these prognosticators have changed a bit, the pollsters themselves are calculating the demographics closer to normal, or this race is really much better for Trump than 2016 or 2020 and pollsters are having difficulty coming up with big numbers for Harris.
Now, 538 (sans Silver) has the race at 2.6% and The Hill / Decision Desk has the race at 3.5, so there is still a bit of movement to the left for them, but nowhere near the differences we saw back in 2020, when 538, Hill, and others were pushing Biden out to a double-digit lead.
Moreover, my spreadsheet average seems stubbornly in line with the overall polling average (currently a whopping 0.19 difference), which also suggests that the normal oversampling of Democrats that had been taking place for years is no longer happening, at least not happening en masse. At the end of the day, based on my own projection of the expected demographic breakdown, there is a small 0.53-point overstatement of GOP support or a small 0.53-point understatement of Democratic support. That could be my own belief that Democrats will bounce back from 2022 to something more in line with 2016 and 2020 is not being shared by everyone. I could honestly be calculating a better turnout for Democrats than I should be based on the objective numbers. Perhaps this will be more in line with 2020 than something between 2020 and 2016 or perhaps the 2022 trend continues, and the GOP will outperform the Democrats in turnout.
Of course, if that is the case, then Trump will likely win every battleground state and be our next President. So I would be happy to be wrong in that direction.,
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