Trump extends the ceasefire while continuing to blockade Iranian ports.

Iran social media suggests that the IRGC is rejecting the extension.

So in another unusual and unexpected move, Trump has decided "not" to reengage the bombing of Iran, but rather to just continue to blockade the strait to make sure nothing gets in or out of Iran.

At first glance, one might suggest that Trump is being a TACO again, as in he is chickening out. Of course, it is hard to argue this considering the fact that we have already taken out the Navy, Air Force, and much of their civilian ability to build any more weapons. He has hardly been shy about attacking Iran and inflicting as much damage as he can. So far he has done far more than any other President in terms of actual tangible actions against Iran. I have no doubt that if Iran reengaged military action that we would respond quite forcefully.

So is this just more so-called 4D chess, has Trump decided he no longer has the stomach for just destroying Iranian infrastructure, or is this a combination of both. My first take (as it was when they offered the ceasefire originally) is a bit of disappointment. But the reaction from Iran suggests that they may have been hoping for Trump to restart the bombing (likely in an attempt to garner more sympathy from other players). They seem actually upset with the announcement, possibly because it makes them look like they have no control over the situation. Moreover, the thing that seems to be hurting them more than anything else is the fact that their port is blocked.

There was some recent "rumors" on social media floating that Iranian vessels have been making it past the blockade. The "rumors" were being pushed (of course) by Iran itself and it was exposed as a hoax. Consider that if Iranian "sleeper" ships were moving past the blockade unnoticed by anyone, there would be literally no reason to expose that on social media and every reason to keep it a secret. Exposing it would only serve to make the US more vigilant and possibly cut off those those ships secretly making it past the blockade. The Iranians cannot even lie well.

But what this serves is the point that Iran definitely wants to downplay the blockade as ineffective. But again, if the blockade was actually ineffective, why would the Iranians actually suggest as such. If it wasn't hurting them, then there would be no reason for them to even discuss it. They might even pretend that it was hurting them even as it wasn't. The only reason they are suggesting that they may not follow the ceasefire is because they know we have them over a barrel and their options are limited. I certainly do not believe they would make good poker players. Their tells are quite significant.

We shall see what comes of this. I suspect even as the cease fire is extended (or not according to the Republican Guard) that there will be some serious activity in the area. I suspect that the United States will capture and block some more ships as Iran has very little choice but to try to push them out. The biggest question is how much time to they actually have before they must cap those wells?