Trump has regained the EC lead for the first time since his undocumented adjustments to his model
Nate Silver: Last update: 12:30 p.m., Thursday, October 17. The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).
As suggested yesterday, the only real good news for Harris was the Marist National and Quinnipiac North Carolina polls and both of those poll were skewed heavily demographically to show the results they got. Everything else was falling in line with Trump.
Now, the market betting has moved even further in Trump's direction after the FOX News interview with Harris. Polymarket for instance now has Trump up 59-37 or 22 points. We can look at the competing spin on the Harris interview (total trainwreck vs a brave effort to stand up to a hostile interviewer) or we can just look to see how the interview pushed the markets. Based on the latter it is clear the smart money believes this interview was a net negative for Harris.
Time for another change in methodology to keep Harris afloat.
Comentários