FOX and Cygnal are latest polls to include both head to head and three way race
At this point I believe we have enough data to conclude that the addition of Kennedy running as an Independent is not a deathblow to either side. That being said, the second phase of including Kennedy will be which of the two major candidates eventually bring back a larger number of their voters back home.
Right now Kennedy is averaging just over 15 percentage in the polls that are including him. We have not seen those sorts of numbers since Ross Perot received approximately 19% in the 1992 election. But even there, Perot had polled much higher earlier on and there was even speculation that he could draw enough support to possibly win some states if not have an outside shot at the Presidency.
My gut says Kennedy will do better than other candidates such as Nader (who only won 5% or more in 11 states) but that what we are seeing is at least slightly overstated. I think he would be more than happy if he got 10% of the national vote and if I had to toss out an over/under right now, that might be about where I would set it. But unless those who abandon Kennedy are almost exclusively aligned with Biden or Trump, I think his place on the ballot will be a wash or a small gain for Trump as we have been seeing.
This, of course, assumes Trump and Biden win their nominations and that Kennedy can find a Party and get on the ballot (Libertarian is what he is flirting with right now). I still believe that Democrats will work to keep him off the ballot anywhere they can just as they do with the Green Party. I truly do not believe that they see him as the stealth candidate who will harm Trump (as many pundits suggest). They will see what everyone else is seeing and decide that even the 1-2 percent is enough to harm Biden.
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