The USSC hears case today on universal injunctions under the pretense of the birthright issue.

On paper it is about an injunction surrounding birthright citizenship, but in reality is is about lower courts issuing national injunctions from their "district" courtrooms.

So in reality, this is a no-brainer. Clarence Thomas has written extensively about the legality of district court judges issuing national injunctions. Gorsuch, Alito, and Kavanaugh have issued opinions that suggested district court should not issue orders that do more than what sits in front of them from their districts. Even the liberal Judge Kagan has a history of criticizing forum shopping and district courts stopping various government actions through national injunctions.

That makes five member of the court (four conservatives and one liberal) who have been openly against the concept of national injunctions being issued from district courts.

Meanwhile, Coney Barrett has suggested that the issue of national injunctions should be addressed and called it an important question. Roberts was part of the ruling that suggested his friend Judge Boasberg went too far in issuing national injunction when he offered that a district court should limit their rulings to who they have in front of them. So there is at least some indication that both would like to see these injunctions reigned in.

Meaning, that prior to these hearings, only Sotomayor and Brown Jackson seemed likely to believe that the amount of national injunctions from the district courts were not a problem. On paper this should be a slam dunk 7-2 decision to create a landmark decision that puts limitations in place for these national injunctions.

Of course that is on paper.

During the arguments, it would appear that Kagan (who make her criticisms during the Biden administration) has changed her tune. Gorsuch seemed non-committal as did Coney Barrett. On the flip side Roberts seemed more inclined to the Governments position than one might have thought going in. So where does that leave us?

If I was a betting man, I would bet that Gorsuch will eventually side with the rest of the conservatives, but only after Roberts comes up with some sort of compromise that would still allow national injunctions from the district courts under a limited scope. Coney Barrett might also sign on, and Kagan is also a long shot possibility. In the end I would look for Roberts to push this compromise hard to at least pull Coney Barrett into the fray, at least to avoid another boys vs girls rulings that have been getting recent criticism. The question becomes what does this compromise look like. I would worry that any decision penned by Roberts himself will have holes so large a tank could roll through them, and we will find ourselves only marginally better off than before. If we find out this is something being authored by Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or Coney Barrett then we may have something slightly better. The best case scenario would be an opinion written by Thomas or Alito, knowing that they will actually be providing some serious relief.