The most recent state polling in the big three states

With just a bit of analysis for the fun of it.

The most recent polling in the three states that seem to matter the most seem to have a lot of red in there with some unusually high numbers of tied polls in Pennsylvania. Of course, this is RCP which does not include all of the same pollsters that 538 and others will add. But these are consistent pollsters with a proven track record (good or bad) and right now most of these are looking good for the former President.

Pennsylvania

Georgia

North Carolina

To take a little deeper dive into the state that gets the most attention (Pennsylvania) and the latest Susquehanna poll (which also seems to be a bellwether poll for this area). There are a couple of things about this poll that made me take a second look.

• The first is that it moved four points in the direction of Trump since their last poll.

• The second is that they provided some crosstabs (which seemed better for Trump than a 46-46 tie).

  
  

So I took a look at the 2020 voter turnout for Pennsylvania and found that there were 41% Republicans 40% Democrats and 19% Independents (the GOP had a three point lead in 2022 midterms). If you model for this particular demographic break down here is what you get:

So as you can see, the poll probably is understating GOP turnout support by a couple of points or they are assuming that demographics have changed since 2020. But at the end of the day, Biden won independents in Pennsylvania by eight points and still nearly lost this state. No way does Trump do better than Harris within his Party and basically tie for independents and not win this state. The more and more we hear about the campaign polling and other movement on the ground in Pennsylvania, the more it starts to look like Harris is in trouble there. Not picking Shapiro as her Vice Presidential pick might have been her biggest blunder so far.