The debates? Will they even happen?

This would be the earliest that two Presidential candidates have debated.

For Biden, they would like them early and far apart, so that they create the least amount of impact with the most amount of time to rest in between. However, their internal polling must suggest that the idea that Biden is "afraid" to debate might be the overriding factor in why they are agreeing to debate at all.

The problem for Trump is the same as it was in 2020. If Joe Biden could avoid falling on his way to the podium and occasionally put two sentence together that almost make sense, then he exceeds the lowest of low expectations that we might have and comes out smelling like a rose. They will probably fill him full of uppers like they did for the SOTU address and he will yell for the whole thing and then the media will call him feisty. Won't matter if he just spills out gibberish, at least he will do so with energy and conviction.

On the flip side, Democrats are quite sure that the only reason Trump is leading in the polls is that people forgot what a horrible person Trump is and that if they just got to know him a bit again, that their disdain would come rushing back. Democrats are very confused as to why people are remembering his Presidency more fondly than they believe they should. Of course, as unpopular as Trump was, he was more popular than Biden is now (at the same time in his Presidency) and not that far off from where Obama was. Either way, they see the "exposure" to Trump as a good thing. It always seems like Trump does better when the spotlight is elsewhere.

At the end of the day, however, I give it 50-50 that these debates will even happen. I believe that one side or the other may just pull out.