Some unexpectedly good economic numbers!

Jobless claims down - GDP revised up.

• Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the consensus estimate for 235,000.

• Gross domestic product posted a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter, up half a percentage point from the prior estimate due to an upward revision to consumer spending.

• Spending on long-lasting items such as airplanes, appliances and computers increased 2.9% in August, compared with the forecast for a decline of 0.4%

Not sure how you lump buying an airplane in with buying a laptop, but the numbers are good. I am watching the left meltdown, suggesting that any numbers now are fake. You know, because they fired the BLS person who got the previous two years wrong by 1.7 million jobs. Since we did away with the person who kept telling us the economy was much better than it was in 2023 and 2024, we should not trust the new person, because obviously that person is biased.

Both the reduction in jobless claims and the GDP are big deals. This would put the first two quarters of 2025 at around 5% growth, which is closer to an economy humming along than one going into a recession. GDP now shows an expected GDP over 3% again in Q3 (which other analysts suggesting something just short of 2%). These are not the sort of numbers that the media is trying to portrait.

The only issue is whether or not this will undermine any rate cuts moving forward. Obviously getting Powell to lower rates is like getting Jimmy Kimmel to apologize on the air. Even if he decides to cut rates, it will be half assed and not what is probably needed. Our federal rates are historically high for an economy of this sort and does not compare well with the rest of the world. I could see Powell suggesting that better economic numbers gives him the opportunity to hold steady a little while longer.