Some recent state polling now has Trump ahead in the RCP battleground state polling average

He is down 2.2 percent in the national polls, while ahead by 0.1% in the battleground states

Some state polling (including NYT/Sienna

in three states) was quite good for Trump, causing movement in 538, Silver Bulletin, as well as the RCP battleground averages.

It sort of feels like Trump has pushed out to a lead in Georgia and Arizona, two states where he lost in 2020 by very small margins. The third state he almost won was Wisconsin, where he has only led in a couple of polls over the past couple of weeks and might be slipping. He still leads by everyone's account in North Carolina as well, although not as much as he does in Georgia or Arizona.

I loath to say that Harris has pulled out to any sort of lead in any of these states given the past two election cycles and how biased the state polling was against Trump. If I were to offer a couple of states where things seem to be moving in her direction, I would say that Michigan and Wisconsin are her strongest polling states. Silver also shows her up in Pennsylvania by 1.5 percent (RCP by 0.7). However, as I pointed out a while ago in a post dedicated to Pennsylvania, her lead in Pennsylvania is entirely driven by pollsters with historically bad biases against Trump, whereas all of the top end polls (based on 538 rankings) show Trump ahead. I think I would rather be Donald Trump in Pennsylvania right now, rather than Harris given which pollsters has which candidate ahead. Especially when you hear about the internal polling and Pennsylvania insiders who claim that Harris and the Democrats are very worried about Pennsylvania.

If Trump were to win in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, it would mean that he could get over the top by winning any of the three great lakes states, whereas Harris would need to run the table in the great lakes to win the electoral college. Does the race still come down to Pennsylvania as many suggest? Possibly. But I wouldn't discount Trump's chances in Wisconsin either, especially when you consider exactly how far ahead Biden (6.9%) and Clinton (4.7%) were polling in Wisconsin at this same time. I see no real good reason to believe that Wisconsin has moved considerably left over the past four years. Certainly polling (in comparison) does not show this. The state's final outcomes were razor thin in both 2016 and 2020 and I would suspect 2024 to be the same. Trump just needs to be 0.7% better in Wisconsin to pull out the victory there.