Some election math that seems to good to believe if you are Trump...

If CNN SSRS polling is correct then Harris has a big problem

So let's start with the reported Pennsylvania early and mail ballot as of a couple of days ago:

• Democratic 56.9% | 881,779 votes

• Republican 32.4% | 501,736 votes

• Other 10.7% | 166,613 votes

Early voting has technically ended except for the GOP heavy county where a judge gave them three extra days because Democrats were shutting down the polling spots early and not allowing people who were in line to vote. What we are seeing now is just the influx of mail in ballots (and that one county), which is why the daily numbers have started to sag. In fact the last day of early voting only produced about 70K new votes.

Most of us are aware that while these numbers look good for Democrats in Pennsylvania, they are nothing compared to how well the Democrats did with early and mail in voting in 2020. In 2020, there were 2.6 million early and mail in ballots, Democrats had a 64%-24% advantage over the GOP, and Biden won those by 1.4 million. If you look at the difference between the Democrat and Republican vote in 2024, the Democrats have "banked" about 381K and I have heard that number might have actually fallen over the past couple of days.

If you want to really dig into it the comparison, Democrats are short by over 750,000 votes compared to how many early/mail-in votes they had in 2020, while the GOP is down only about 100,000 votes from their 2020 total. Moreover that 24.5% difference between the Democrats and Republicans was dwarfed by the 50% difference they say in 2020.

But alas, CNN/SSRS had taken the liberty of polling those who claim to have already voted in their battleground state polling. I am sure this looked very good to the uneducated eye! But check out Pennsylvania?

So apparently, even though Democrats hold a 24 point lead in the ballots that have been turned in, they only have a 17 point lead in those who have actually voted? Unlike 2020, where Biden inexplicitly overperformed by winning 76% of the votes with a breakdown advantage of 64/24/12 (and no that still doesn't make sense), Harris seems to be underperforming in the early vote count. If CNN/SSRS is to believed, then those 1.55 million early voters are only producing about a 265K lead for Harris going into the election day. That is a problem given Trump won the election day vote by about 1.3 million in 2020.

Now obviously Trump is unlikely to win the election day vote in 2020 by 1.3 million in 2020, because one has to expect some of those 2020 early voting Democrats will vote that day. But it certainly looks like you could subtract the million from the 1.3 million and still have enough votes left over to beat 265K. These numbers look so bad for Harris right now, I would not be surprised to see Trump win Pennsylvania by a margin well outside the range that any cheating can make up for.