So isn't this special?

So after tracking polling for months, 538, Nate Silver, and the economist all flip their numbers on the last night to show Harris winning

The quote:

The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

So here are the final numbers:

• 538 - Harris 50-49

• Silver - Harris 50.015-49.985

• Economist - Harris 56-44 shift of 6% last night

• Hill/DDHQ - Trump 54%

So when I looked last night (about 9:00 EST) both 538 and Silver had Trump winning at 51 and 51.5 collectively. Economist had them even at 50-50, and the Hill/DDHQ was at 53%. From what I can tell, they all moved their numbers either late last night or early this morning. If you get the feeling that they might have tweaked some things so that it didn't look like they were predicting Trump, then you are not alone.

Apparently there was enough of a "subtle" change in both the 538 and Silver numbers to push this just over the edge for Harris, while the economist moved a whole 6% in favor of Harris over what would appear to be no real new polling. Silver seems to be suggesting that the last round of Atlas polling (showing Trump winning in every state) was not quite as good as their previous polls, which flipped the script for him. That being said, I thought those polls had come out fairly early in the day.

Oddly, the RCP battleground state final was 0.8% for Trump after it had fallen for a short while to 0.6%. The Hill/DDHQ who is another who basically tracks polls en-masse actually moved 1% towards Trump. The only one I watch that actually did so. Meanwhile, the betting odds seem to be moving today a bit towards Trump (61.7% according to Polymarket) as rumors of slow voter turnout in many areas have dampened some of the spirit for a big Harris election day turnout.