So, about that Arizona partisan breakdown...

Pretty simple way to figure this out. Look at the exit polling and do the math.

So, there was a comment today regarding the fact that 267,000 more Republicans voted in the Arizona 2022 midterm election, and yet Kari Lake lost to Katie Hobbs by over 17 thousand votes. This came from X/Twitter and linked to an article from the "Leading Report".

The article provided a dumbed down suggestion of how Hobbs could have won all of the independent voters and still needed X number of Republican voters to win the election and blah blah blah. This suggests the layman's expectation that nearly all of the Democrats would have otherwise voted for Hobbs, while all of the Republicans would have voted for Lake. Not much real analysis, but the point being made certainly can still be valid. Kari Lake just might have gotten robbed.

However, there is a way to do real analysis here. Exit polling!

Exit polling gives us an actual percentage to go on and with a bit of spreadsheet math, you can calculate out what we might have expected each candidate to have gotten with real statistical analysis. We can then compare this projection to what was actually counted and see if the numbers look in line or problematic.

Let's start by looking at the official numbers.

Then let's look at the relative exit polling:

Now let's do the math:

• There were 1,071,775 Democrats, 1,390,019 Republicans, and 156,490 non-affiliated according to the recent story.

• If Hobbs got 95% of the Democrats, 9% of the Republicans and 52% if the non-affiliated, then we should have expected her to garner approximately 1,220,072 votes (approximately 67,818 less than she actually was credited with).

• If Lake got 4% of the Democrats, 91% of the Republicans, and 45% of the non-affiliated we should have expected her to have received 1,331,789 votes (approximately 61,025 more than were actually counted).

• In this scenario, based on the partisan breakdown and exit polling, Lake should have won by about 111,726 votes. Instead, she lost by 17,117.

So, either the numbers being provided are not accurate, the exit polling is not accurate, or there are serious issues with how that election was counted. I have no reason to believe that anyone just made up the partisan numbers. Those are readily available in many states from the Secretary of State's office. Exit polling can be unreliable, but not so unreliable to be off by well over 100,000 votes. The conclusion here, in my humble opinion, is that Kari Lake just might have a valid complaint.