A group of CNN polls favorable to Harris that just came out might change this a bit. But remember that CNN had Biden up double digits in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2020. They cannot be trusted!
I think this seems accurate to me. I am not 100% sure why anyone believes that Harris will win states (like North Carolina) that Biden didn't when he got 17 trillion votes in 2020. I am also still unsure how deep red Georgia with their Republican supermajorities in their state houses can be trending towards Harris. Kemp just won that state by over seven points. Without election shenanigans, I don't see Trump losing Georgia.
To me, Pennsylvania still remains the key here. I saw a poll showing McCormick catching Casey in the Pennsylvania Senate race, which would be huge. But if those two are somewhere near "even" then Trump has to be ahead. I believe that Trump's chance of winning Pennsylvania and winning overall should be just as even as they are here (57% chance of winning Pennsylvania and 56.7% chance of winning the election).
All that being said, the betting odds are back to even in the RCP averages. They had been Harris for quite some time, then Trump pushed ahead by a few tenths of a percent, and now they are dead even again.
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