I like the list, although I disagree a little on Texas and Maryland. Trende has Cruz (who is leading in the RCP averages by over seven points) more vulnerable than the open Democratic seat in Maryland where the popular Republican (and former Governor) Larry Hogan currently leads over his Democratic opponent in the RCP polling.
I sort of felt like the Texas Democrats sort of went all in on Beto O'Rourke who was seen at the time as an up and comer and possibly someone who would make another Presidential run. Yet, Cruz still won by 2.6 points in a year that was pretty good for the Democrats. Now they are going more unknown by nominating former football player and political novice Colin Allred to challenge Cruz. Allred was first elected to Congress in 2018 and barely won the primary. I don't think this is the guy who will oust Cruz, even as Cruz is not the most popular Republican in Texas.
Hogan, on the other hand, might actually be the favorite right how. Early polls don't always tell us as much as we might think (he was up twelve points in a recent poll) and partisanship has a tendency to take charge in Presidential election years, but Hogan is popular and has won statewide races in Maryland before. So he can buck that trend.
Comentarios