Post trial Ipsos poll (Reuters) shows two-point bump for Biden.

However, the crosstab math does not statistically bear that out. The poll has been weighted, but they provide no information on how it is weighted.

One poll shows Trump with a two-point bump and another shows Biden with a two-point bump. Perhaps this suggests that this will be a wash? But then again, Ipsos commissioned by Reuters has been favorable to Biden since they have been polling this race.

As far as the cross tabs, I see some odd discrepancies. Let's take a look:

They found more GOP voters and a higher percentage of them are registered to vote:

But you look at their polling results and they suggest that the registered voters favor Biden more than the overall sample:

When I do the math, it shows that Trump would hold a two-point lead based on the unweighted sample:

So, there is some weighting involved here that is not being revealed in the cross tabs. As near as I can tell, it must look something like this:

Not sure if the percentages that Ipsos is providing is for the overall voters or for the registered voters, as the number of voters matches neither of the numbers they provide. It's very difficult to read into this based on the lack of clarity. But if more Republicans than Democrats are registered according to this poll, are they suggesting that registered Republicans are more likely to vote for Biden than unregistered Republicans? That is main conclusion that can be drawn, and I find that dubious.

Lastly, and I think this will hold true about most of these polls is that we do not know who these voters are who are saying that the conviction makes them more or less likely to vote. All of those voters (on both sides) or at least most of those voters may already be fairly set in their vote and are just telling pollsters that it reaffirms or makes them more confident in their predefined decision. A real poll would need to look at people who are willing to switch their vote because of it, otherwise uncommitted voters making a commitment, or someone who was not going to vote deciding now is the time. The million plus people who are first time donors to Trump probably tell a bigger tangible tale here.

At the end of the day, I suspect that we will see a short-term polling bump for Biden when more of these media polls (Reuters being the first) come out. We will need to temper them with other polls and see where this whole thing shakes out in the coming weeks. I would say by the fourth of July we will have a pretty good indication as to whether there is a substantial shift in either direction. My own spreadsheet (which I just updated with all of the pre-trial polls) can be a starting point. My spreadsheet tends to move slower and requires confirmation from various pollsters before any short-term movement becomes real.