Post DNC polling update

Nate Silver suggested that the over-under on the polling was a four point lead for Harris.

In other words, for Harris to feel good about any post-DNC poll, it should show her leading by more than four points. Four points would be meh. Anything under four points should be seen as a less than positive post-DNC result.

So far we have seen twelve polls taken at least partially after the DNC completed. We have run the gauntlet of Harris being up seven in a Big Village poll down to the Echelon poll showing Trump leading by a point. There has been two polls were Harris was up five, five polls where she is up four, two where she is leading by two, and one where she is leading by one.

The average of all of these polls shows Harris up by approximately 3.5%, so about a half point under where Silver suggested she needed to be to feel good about her post-DNC bounce. Now that is not to say that a few more pollsters will not come out with higher numbers for Harris over the next few days, but it doesn't appear that the bounce was as significant as many on the left felt it would be. Moreover, if you go back and look at the previous polling, the Big Village poll had shown Harris leading by five prior to the DNC, so that seven point lead is not all bump. It is simply an expansion of a previous polling outlier.

Update: Rasmussen put out their first post DNC poll and still shows The Donald up by two points, a single point drop from last week's poll. Considering their daily tracking had shown Harris taking a lead during the convention, Trump being back up by two is good news for him.

Lastly, there has been a glut of battleground state polling over the past week or so, and the battleground states are practically sitting at dead even (RCP shows a difference of 0.1%). The Ipsos Reuters poll released today that showed Harris "expanding her lead" from one point to four points nationally, also shows Trump ahead by two points in their battleground state results. That is a concerning six point difference. Other pollsters seem to find the same thing. Trump still runs significantly better in the battleground states than he does nationally. So ultimately Harris has taken a smallish national lead and closed the gap to be virtually even in the battleground states. But given this is supposed to be at the peak of where she should be polling (post-convention), the fact that she has only managed to simply draw even where she needs to win should be of some concern for Democrats.

The need another punch up at the beach ball to keep it from falling. But what do they really have at this point to look forward to?