Peace for Russia/Ukraine?

Still not likely as I see it.

So by all accounts, Putin is not set to budge on the land he has acquired during this war, as well as the previously occupied Crimea. In fact, he seems to be asking for more land than they have actually secured, including several strategic cities. All in all, Putin is asking that the world accept that all of Crimea, and larges sections of Donetsk and Lugansk are all part of Russia now. This is not something he appears willing to budge on and unless someone is willing to go push him out of those areas, there is not much anyone is going to be able to do to force him to give it back. By someone, I mean the United States, and I doubt the US is going to war.

On the flip side, Zelensky maintains consistently that he cannot (according to the Ukraine constitution) give up any land in any agreement to end any war at any time for any reason. His position is that Russia must give back all of the occupied territory, including Crimea (which has been under Russian control since the Obama Administration) or the war will simply have to continue.

So to recap. Putin wants land in exchange for peace, and Zelensky is not willing to give up any land for peace. That sort of sounds like this war is destined to continue, at least for the short and medium term, unless one side or the other moves from these fairly set conditions.

In my humble opinion, the fact that Zelensky came with most of the European leaders is a sign that he still believes that he can come out of all of this with the win. He appears to believe that with enough support, Putin will eventually have to cave in and leave Ukraine and give back Crimea. I suspect that is also the goal of these European leaders. To stand firm with Zelensky and against Russia.

The problem with that logic is that pretty much nobody in Europe is going to personally go to bat for Zelensky and Ukraine here. Like good little liberals, they are just proving that they can be generous with other people's military resources. Of course those military resources are pretty much all US resources. As it stands, Europe is really offering no skin in this game, other than providing the bluster for Zelensky's demands. The entire thing hinges apparently on convincing Trump to at least threaten war with Russia to get what "they" all want. They must believe that the united front will convince Trump to change course. I doubt he will, because he realizes that deals are not made in this fashion, unless someone can be bullied. Putin cannot be bullied here, and this is seriously a hill Putin may be willing to die on (or at least go nuclear on).

Nope, any negotiations to end the war will need to be just that. Negotiations. Zelensky will need to come to the table with a plan to give up land and Europe must accept that this will be the prices to end the war. Putin is not going to simply give in to all of Zelensky's demands just because Europe wants him too. Putin may back away from some of the land he wants (and has not taken over) or maybe he will not. But giving back the Pro-Russia Russian speaking areas that are now under Russian occupation (including Crimea) is going t be a non-starter. Again, the only way that happens is by force. The only people with the force necessary to accomplish this is the United States. Trump will not start a war with Putin and Russian. Not because he is afraid, but because it is not in our best interests to start a war because Zelensky and Europe will not accept the reality before them.

I don't see a good way for this to end anytime soon. I hope I am wrong, but it seems unlikely.