“Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Lately, I’ve been seeing people repeat Ronald Reagan’s famous question, many of them apparently believing that they’re making a slam-dunk case for returning Donald Trump to power.
Yet if you take the question literally, the answer is almost ludicrously favorable to President Biden. After all, four years ago, thousands of Americans were dying each day of Covid-19.
Thousands of Americans died under President Biden as well. Covid killed millions world wide and in spite of what some morons would have you to believe, the worldwide pandemic was not Trump's fault. To suggests we should not vote for Trump because his term ended during Covid is idiotic.
Furthermore, people inherently understand this. They do not consider how the world was during Covid as an indication of either how Trump or Biden performed as President (other than Trump did a much better job of getting ahead of Covid when it first came out). Krugman, of course, suggests the opposite. In his mind Trump botched the Covid response in spite of most every disagreement between the economy and caution turned out in the end to favor economy (and that our mitigation policies did next to nothing to stop Covid). Either way, what the general population looks at now is how the country was prior to Covid and how it looks post Covid. They don't blame either President "for" Covid or for how the economy changed during Covid.
Krugman also find obscure (and specific) statistics to suggest that real income is higher under Biden than Trump.
Furthermore, almost every measure I’m aware of says most Americans are, in fact, better off now than they were in late 2019 or early 2020. Yes, prices have risen a lot, but incomes have risen even more. Real incomes per capita, although lower than they were when the government was handing out stimulus checks, are higher than before the pandemic.
But real income has traditionally increased over the years. According to the US Census Bureau and the Economic Research group, or real median income has risen nearly 50% since 1975. But if you see by this chart here (which is different from what Krugman provides) - real income has remained rather flat post pandemic:
So while it technically might be true that wages have kept up with inflation, people generally expect that promotions and raises are going to help them get ahead, not just keep up.
If you were to look at the last few years of this chart, you would see that people saw some losses between 2008 and about 2012 and then things started rising significantly and continued to do so till we hit Covid. In fact, real incomes rose from just under 34,000 to just under 41,000 in a few short years. When people got raises or promotions they actually had more buying power. If wages are outpacing inflation (as Krugman suggests) then we would see the same type of growth. Obviously we don't.
Krugman is suggesting that because income was under $40,000 for much of Trump's term (although increasing fast) that people being a little over $40,000 in real income four years later should make them feel better. That is not how the real world works. We want a nicer car, better food, more disposable income. Not status quo.
Krugman also suggests that there is a disconnect between those who say they are doing better versus their overall position on the economy.
I’ve written before about swing-state polls in which solid majorities of voters say that the economy is doing badly, but at the same time comparable majorities say that they themselves are doing well. The widely cited Michigan survey asks respondents whether their financial situation is better or worse than it was five (not four) years ago: 52 percent say better, 38 percent say worse.
I could probably argue that I am a tiny bit ahead of where I was four years ago (although much of that is because I am no longer supporting two children and am now sharing expenses with a wife). But many of us worry about how our children will do and whether or not our economy is going to allow them to have families, buy houses, and do the things we did as we raised our children. Moreover, the survey does not suggest how much better off we are and if that "better off" meets the expectations of how we had been doing for the five-six years prior to Covid.
Lastly, this is simply the economy, which is an issue that Biden is losing and will continue to lose. Citing statistics to people who balance their own checkbooks is not a way to convince them that you understand their feelings and want to help. Basically polisplaining to your voters that they are wrong to feel how they feel will not win votes. But for Biden, it is not just the economy. As the economy wades through the mud and muck of just keeping up, the world is burning and we are seeing political unrest in the country unmatched by anything we have seen in years.
From Afghanistan, to Russia/Ukraine, to the Middle East blowing up, things are blowing up and our feckless responses has done nothing but drain our military and economic coffers. The campus antisemitic movement is growing and expanding, leading to a fracture in our country while or Administration is trying to appease both sides rather than fix the problem. The unpopular movement to force people into electric cars, and electric grids, and electric appliances and electric furnaces is not helping the cause. Nor is the openly banana republican attempts to jail the GOP Presidential nominee helping the cause. But probably the biggest problem Biden suffers from is his age and inability to walk from point A to point B without assistance or talk in front of a crowd without making stuff up as he goes.
Are we really better off today? Not unless you are a hopeless partisan who just cannot stand the idea of the bad orange man being President again.