NYT Sienna poll shows Trump ahead nationally by two points in a shocking poll result

This is going to cause a lot of hand wringing from Harris and the left

This puts more pressure on Harris moving into the debate on Tuesday. She is no longer arguably ahead in this race, given the state of the electoral college versus the popular vote. Conventional wisdom suggests she needs to be up by three points or more to win the electoral college and that number is slowly slipping away. Nate Silver has had Harris's chances of winning in the low 40's most of this week, and the last couple of polls are not going to help that number.

At this point, both my polling average and spreadsheet show Harris up by around 1.85%. Nate Silver shows her up only 2.5%, which is over a full point swing over the past week. RCP shows the race at 1.45. Neither the Hill nor 538 have added it to their averages yet. Probably trying to dig into the crosstabs to see if they can adjust the topline to something more favorable.

Either way, the joyous momentum is not something that continues at this point. I think the days of Harris sitting back on a lead are gone. It now becomes the choice between laying low and hoping things turn around on their own or getting out there and hoping people getting to know the real Harris are not turned off by what they find out. She now has real work to do, and let's see how that affects her behavior moving forward.