Newsom playing out his bluff?

Public discussion has started on the plan to move California to a new 49-3 gerrymandered map to offset Texas redistricting.

Now I have several thoughts on this:

• This is almost an impossible task and likely just provides way more purple seats with a slight Democratic advantage. There are not 49 safe Democrat seats in California, no matter how you arrange it.

• The current polling in California is currently against the idea of redistricting by a two to one margin. This is going to take a great deal of selling to convince voters that this is a good plan, especially when they understand that what California does other states will follow suit. Nothing will be off limits. California (not Texas) will be responsible.

• Abbot has already suggested that they will redo their map if California follows through to provide more GOP districts. I have heard different numbers, but the same issue applies. There are only so many safe districts that can be effectively drawn. Newsom has five days after the session starts to figure this out. Abbot and Texas will have more than enough times to readjust the maps and still pass it by their deadline.

• This will pull DeSantis and other red states into the mix and there will no more restraint. Look for massive gerrymandering in several red states if California passes the bill to hold a November vote. Those Democrats who lose their seats in Texas, Ohio, Florida, and other states will have Gavin Newsom to blame.

Lastly, the maps drawn in Texas, in Ohio, in Florida, and in other red states will be passed in the legislature. They will not wait until the California vote. They will do it prior. Once passed, they will be a done deal. Redistricting lawsuits will be a lost cause in these states. Newsom is banking on the idea that he can turn public opinion in favor of something that most in California do not want. But if he is wrong and the new map fails to pass, then he just cost his own Party control in 2026 and possibly 2028 as well. This is a big gamble and it will be extremely costly to the California taxpayers.