Suggests that it is not based on polling... or is it?
Last update: 1:30 p.m., Thursday, October 10. We’ve been in a little bit of a Groundhog Day pattern lately. Polling data over the past week or so has been a mixed bag, but with more bright spots for Trump than for Harris if you squint. However, sentiment about the race has shifted in a GOP direction, sometimes to the point of outright panic by Democrats, in a way that isn’t really justified by the polling.
Versus a week ago, Trump has gained 0.3 points in our national average, 0.9 points in MI, 0.8 points in WI, 0.4 points in NV, 0.3 points in PA, 0.2 points in NC and 0.1 points in AZ. Harris has gained 0.3 points in GA. So a slight move in a Trump direction, and the race is on the verge of becoming truly 50/50 rather than virtually 50/50. But this is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise.
Let's assume that this is truly a 50/50 race right now. Trump gaining almost a point in Michigan and Wisconsin, while gaining in every other battleground state but Georgia at this stage of the race is actually quite significant. Moreover, Silver has to know he is ignoring some other polling that is showing Trump ahead in some of these battleground states so his numbers may not be real. Just because Silver doesn't see any reason for panic within his own computer model doesn't mean those reasons don't exist. What has gotten Democrats in a panic is not the media polls, the tracking polls, or any of the polls that are listed on any of the polling aggregates and prognosticators. It certainly isn't because they are closely following Nate Silver and his model and saw a few tenths of point gain for Trump. What has gotten them into a panic is three things in my humble opinion.
First is the various internal polling (which is suddenly being leaked) that shows Harris losing where people sort of believed she was ahead. Not just a little bit behind, but behind by 2-3 points in states that Silver and others show her winning by a point or more. Moreover, some of the internal polling being leaked by Democrats is actually better for Trump than the internal polling that Republicans have been leaking (which still shows him winning everywhere). This could seriously suggest that these media polls are still understating Trump support by similar numbers than they did in 2016 and 2020. Even if they are understating Trump support by a point, he wins the electoral college by all accounts. I believe Democrats understand this even if most won't admit it out loud.
The second reason for panic is the concept that even a small bit of momentum for Trump right now could be devastating for the Harris camp as they have nothing coming up right now to reset the race. The timing for this little surge couldn't be much worse. The debates are now over, there are no more conventions or events, and the strategy of getting Harris and Walz out into the public eye with more interviews has arguably done more harm than good. They don't have a whole lot of options or any obvious way to punch that beach ball back up into the air. Without another punch, the momentum of gravity is going to take over and the Harris beach ball will fall.
The third is a lack of strategy options for moving the needle moving forward in a conventional manner now that the initial Harris love has waned and there are no more events. Sure, she has a money advantage. But the laws of diminishing returns on the type of spending we have seen in the past few races is significant and real. If advertising has not sold the public on Harris so far, then more of the same isn't going to help. They seem to finally realize that they have to move on from "joy" and into something of more substance but cannot seem to figure out what that is. They still seem to be experimenting with messaging with less than a month to go. On the flip side this is Trump's third Presidential campaign and Trump is an open book. No two Presidential candidates put together have felt the scrutiny that Donald Trump has gotten from the opposition, the media, and everyone else over the past three elections. There is really nothing people haven't already heard about Trump at this point, and repeating the same old song and dance is not going to help.
I would argue that in terms of advertising strategy the Harris camp has blown their load. They are running out of time to actually find something completely new that both works and provides an ability to hammer it home on short notice. Money doesn't help if you do not have an effective way to spend it. I would rather have $100 million and a good message than $200 million and no cohesive message.
So combine the issues here and you can see why there is some panicking going on. Between the fear that she is currently behind in the battleground states, along the growing momentum for Trump, and the fact their change in strategy has not been working, means that they have three weeks to stop the bleeding (even if it just a couple of paper cuts) and then reverse the course. The problem is that they are really unsure how to accomplish this and the election is less than a month away.
I might panic too if I was in their shoes.
I feel Joy.
Message Accomplished.