This is not about one poll. This is about patterns in election results, multiple polls, and the fact that Democrats are failing blacks.
This is a guy who simply cannot understand why other black people do not express the same blind loyalty to one particular political party as he does. Moreover, he is clearly vested in the idea of blacks voting for Democrats in general.
At the end of the day, most of these arguments are not much different than the shaming that Joe Biden attempted to do when he demanded that you ain't black if you vote against him.
None of these people are willing to listen to the millions of black people who are switching sides. They go back and forth between insulting them and pretending that they are not actually going to vote against Democrats. But Blacks went from 93% support in 2012, to 89% support in 2016, to 86% in 2020 in the actual vote count (according to CNN exit polls).
Trump went from getting 8% in 2016 to getting 12% in 2020, which is an increase of 50%. In some polls, support for Biden is under 70%. While I do not believe Trump will approach 20% or more (as some are suggesting), I would be surprised if he doesn't increase from 12% somewhere to into the 15% range. Even that smallish amount of movement would flip well over a million votes in that demographic alone. Probably enough to turn the tale in a close state such as Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and go along ways to flipping states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The problem for Biden is the electoral college. He may or may not win the popular vote in 2024, but he will not win the electoral college vote if he drops even a smallish amount with black voters. Georgia is almost assuredly going to flip back red in 2020. Trump is well ahead in the polls in Arizona and Nevada. Biden only won Georgia and Arizona by under 12,000 votes and won Nevada by about 30,000. If Trump wins those states (and the others he won in 2020) then he sits at 268 votes or exactly 1 electoral college vote short of winning the Presidency. Biden would need to hit the inside flush at that point to avoid losing. He would need to win three states where he is currently behind in the polls. Given how understated Trump's support was in both 2016 and 2020 (especially in battleground states), who knows if the race is even as close right now as polls suggest.
Comments