Kennedy hits 25% in Rasmussen and 15% in the RCP averages;

This is a problem when Kennedy suggests he will run third Party unless the Democrats allow for a fair primary, including debates. Why? Because Democrats can neither afford to allow Biden to debate or see Kennedy run third Party.

I read the other day that Eric Clapton helped raise a few million for the anti-vax conspiracy theorist (or at least that is how the mainstream Democrats see him). We all know he was right about Covid and the vax. Big star power never hurts a campaign.

Obviously short of a complete meltdown for Joe Biden there is not enough momentum for Kennedy to capture the nomination at this point. But at least Kennedy (unlike Gavin Newsom) is actually running and will be on the primary ballot when these states start to vote. So if something were to happen where Biden becomes unpalatable, Kennedy might be the only actual viable option. Democrats might scramble and try to hedge their bets bend the rules and add someone else, but who knows how that all works out.

The best case scenario for Trump and the GOP would be for Kennedy to run third Party. I think the Kennedy name and his ultra-liberal niche would pull enough votes from Biden to cause serious problems. While it is possibly he could pull some potential votes from Trump (possibly previous Biden voters who see Kennedy as a better option than Trump) I don't see the serious Trump voter looking to a Kennedy for their vote. Too liberal and too mainstream for your typical Trump voter. I might see someone like Joe Manchin pulling votes from both sides (but I would still see more being pulled from Biden).

The second best option would be for the Democrats to cave and force Biden to debate Kennedy and Williamson. Watching the old man try to out-liberal the two liberals would be worth the price of admission.