Several pollsters are suggesting that their post debate bump is dissipating
From just a few polls that have come out over the past 24 hours we have seen a subtle but very real shift in the polling numbers. It is unusual for my own averages to change by two tenths of a point based on just a few polls. However, in this case we are seeing some pollsters (Activote, RMG, YouGov) that are coming out with their second post-debate poll and are shifting back towards pre-debate numbers.
In the case of Activote, for example, they showed a four point bump for Harris last week and this week that entire bump is gone and they are literally right back to their pre-debate numbers. RMG is another pollster that saw the second post-debate poll wipe out any gains from the first post-debate poll. We have seen a couple others where they still are showing a smallish bump in the second post-debate poll, but a fall for Harris support from the first post-debate poll non-the-less. Couple these polls with the very surprising CNN and Quinnipiac polls showing the race pretty much dead even, and you have what appears to be some real movement. Obviously the Hill managed to somehow take all of these polls and see an increase in Harris polling value, but that is the Hill. I have no idea how they are coming up with their averages.
We also have to keep in mind that both 538 and Nate Silver are including both national and state polling in their averages. Given their numbers moved as much as might did, that also suggests that the state polling they are adding to their averages at the very least are not offsetting the national surge. Problem with those state polls (and the sheer number or obscure pollsters polling these days) is that there is going to be good polls and bad polls and sometimes a combination of each if you are using all of these available polls in your average. I saw one state pollster showing Trump ahead in six of the seven states, while I saw another showing Harris ahead in six of the seven states (with the one Trump state being a four point lead in North Carolina).
At the end of the day, much of this is noise. If Trump can continue polling well in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, then he is in a position to force Harris to win every great lake state to win the election. Nevada is another wild card. If Trump were to win Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, then North Carolina become irrelevant as well. Or visa versa - Trump winning North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania makes Georgia irrelevant. In other words, Trump just seems to have more "pathways" to victory versus Harris who appears to need to win all three great lake states or figure out how to steal North Carolina or Georgia, where she seems to be down. I hate to continue to look at past polling biases and see a Trump lead as more stable than a Harris one, but it would be hard to imagine Harris actually overperforming polls when both Clinton and Biden underperformed.
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