In spite of the top lines, the Quinnipiac polls in North Carolina and Georgia are great news for Trump.

Quinnipiac has been a poor pollster for some time and for obvious reasons

First, the Quinnipiac poll shows Trump winning Georgia by three points. In 2020, when Biden won 0.3% he won independents by nine points, won 96% of Democrats and picked up 6% of Republicans. The 2024 Quinnipiac poll shows Harris winning 94% of Democrats, picking up 4% of Republicans, and it shows her tied in Independents. So this actually looks about right when I run the numbers.

But in North Carolina, they show Harris winning by three points, without any good reason at all for it. Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by about 75,000 votes. Both Candidate won their own Party at 96% and 97% and Biden won independents by four points. But given the partisan GOP advantage, Trump still won. In this poll, they show Harris winning 99% of her Democratic voters (not happening), They show Trump winning 94% of the GOP voters, and Trump is winning Independents by five points. When I model out the numbers based on 2020 turnout, I have Trump beating Harris by about two points which is even a larger advantage than he had in 2020. That is even allowing for the concept that Harris would win 99% of the Democratic voter (which to my knowledge has never happened in any state).

Even it out, and the crosstabs from both of these polls suggest that Trump is running ahead of where he finished in 2020 in both states and substantially so in Georgia. If he holds these two states and Pennsylvania (which has been looking better for Trump as of late), then he will be our next President.