If Trump is unelectable, then who exactly is electable?

Trump currently holds the top betting odds at winning the Presidency in 2024 with Biden, Newsom, Michelle Obama, and Kennedy rounding out the top five.

2024 seems to be an election where nobody really seems "electable" but yet someone has to win. If not Trump, then who?

It is interesting (and alarming) that no other GOP candidate cracks the top five with people willing to put their money where their opinions are. DeSantis falls into sixth place, with about a 1 in 23 chance according to the bookies.

Everyday that goes by is another day closer to a rematch of the 2020 election. While the conventional wisdom still seems to be that neither Trump or Biden will be on the ballot, the logic behind that wisdom continues to fade. At this point, it appears up to both Trump and Biden to make the determination as to whether or not they are the nominee. I don't see anyone legitimately beating either of them during the nomination process.

Of course all sorts of people still suggest some that sort of backroom negotiations will take place and eventually the real puppet masters will decide that the race will be something like Newsom vs Haley just because. This suggests that neither side will abide by the rules in place and that the two candidates who most assuredly will lock up the delegates will be pushed aside and simply replaced by others, well... again... just because. I don't think it really works that way and such a move by either side would likely tear their Party apart.

Is there a chance that Slow Joe will get the hint and at some times decide to simply retire to spend more quality influence peddling time with his extended family? Sure, but what's to influence if you are no longer important? He has personal incentive to stay in this race for a variety of reasons. Moreover the chances of Trump stepping away at this point is right around the same as someone winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning in the same day. If neither Biden or Trump has accepted the conventional reasonings for why they need to drop out by now, why would we expect either to suddenly become enlightened by what others have to say anytime in the near future. And believe me, this probably would need to happen in the near future.

tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...

So this runs us across the reality in question. You could take the two worst college football teams in America whom have been crushed by every opponent and suggest that they have no chance to win any games this year. But if they play each other, well then one of them pretty much has to. This holds true in the 2024 election as well. No matter how bad people may think the frontrunners are in this cycle, someone still has to win.

And in some ways, the argument about the nature of the candidates might be at least somewhat misplaced. After all, for the second time in our nation's history we could have the last two incumbent Presidents running for office (Grover Cleveland pulled off what Trump wants to do back in 1892). They say there is always a power in incumbency and in 2020 could actually have that power doubled. Sure, neither are in their prime and both carry a lot of baggage, but at the end of the day, both men have the experience of literally being President.

Polls suggest that this will be a close race (at least in popular vote). The most recent state by state polling shows Trump with a relatively commanding Electoral College lead. Obviously this is just polling and things can and most likely will fluctuate. The potential Trump trials are a possible variable as are any potential debates and whether or not Biden can hold up during the campaign. But no other Democrats polls better than Biden and no other Republican (other than Nikki Haley) polls better than Trump. While I realize that this seems completely counter-intuitive to many people, there seems to be very strong grounded reasoning for this if you get past the "gut feeling" of our pundits and talking heads.