Biden is going either win or drop out of the race!
Now Cohen's reasoning is one that 99 out of a 100 projections will suggest is flat out wrong. He believes that Democrats have outperformed in special elections in 2023 and that this points to Biden winning reelection. Cohen cites his numbers from the reputable and certainly not biased Daily Kos blog, so I would take those numbers with a grain of salt. Funny thing is that most everyone in projection game will tell you that special elections are almost never an indicator of an upcoming general. The fact that it is a Presidential year, makes the special election issue even less of an indicator.
It's certainly true that Democrats have done well across the board in special elections for several years. This comes from large amounts of money flowing in from outside sources that for whatever reasons always dwarfs what the GOP special election candidates bring in. They also seem to be winning recently by focusing almost exclusively on abortion. Something that has resonated recently, but will eventually fade as states continue to solidify their own stances. How many times can someone from a state like California or Washington that already has liberal abortion laws convince people that an additional Republican or two will get abortions banned? I mean, I understand liberal voters to be gullible. But eventually they will grow out of this.
Lastly, Candidates matter. While Trump is no gem (assuming he wins the nomination) he effectively lost by less than 1% in the states that mattered to Joe Biden at a time when Joe Biden was thought to be the person who could bring unity and normalcy back to the Presidency. He was considered a decent man who was the opposite of the less than decent Trump. We now know he is not only not decent, but not really competent either. To suggest that Trump could not pick up that 1% in those close states is a murky prediction.
This is the reason why others are arguing that Biden doesn't make it to 2024. While there appears to be no real alternative to Biden, that doesn't mean that someone (Gavin Newsome?) will not step up. No, that someone will not be JFK Jr, but it feels like anyone of substance getting in the race would likely come out the victor. Perhaps even Newsome. Many seem to be waiting for Biden to step away and there have been plenty of rumors to that extent. But eventually, if there is no sign of Biden stepping down voluntarily, I certainly believe that someone of substance will reach out to challenge him. It seems politically unadvisable to have this man run for President again. Even if it is against Trump.
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