If you remove all states where the current polling shows one candidate up by more than four points... you only have two states (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that are up for grabs.
In this scenario, Trump would already be over the 270 needed to win. Biden would have to win both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and then still pick up at least 14 more electoral college points.
Michigan would seem the most logical place for Biden to fight back as it is worth 15 electoral college votes. However, Trump has led every poll taken in Michigan since November of 2023 and has seen polls where he is leading 8 points and 10 points respectively. One bigger poll might be seen as an outlier. But add in three other polls where he hold a 5 point lead, and the 8 and 10 do not look out of whack. It would be more accurate to suggest that the one older +2 Biden poll would be the outlier.
I actually believe Trump would be favored in Wisconsin as well considering the history there. Trump winning Wisconsin would put this even further out of reach for Joe Biden.
Who knows with Pennsylvania and their history of funny election numbers. Biden leads by a small amount in the RCP average in Pennsylvania, but that is skewed by an outlier poll that shows Trump getting only 39% in a state he narrowly won and narrowly lost. Without that poll, Trump would have a smallish 1-2 point lead.
Historically Trump has overperformed state by state polling by a noticeable amount. That doesn't mean he will do it a third time, but I would guestimate that the chances of him overperforming by at least a small amount is significant. A lot could change between now and then, but for now.... things are looking better for the bad orange man than they are for the well meaning elderly man with a poor memory.
We should have a basic competency test for each of those jobs too. Like what is a woman? Kind of like passing your driver's license test.
I left out judicial SCOTUS as well
We need a 28th amendment, all President’s, Cabinet members, Senators and legislators regardless of age must agree to cognition tests, they can’t decline them…..
Does anyone think if Joe Biden did not have the resources to keep medical people, nurses, and others around him 24-7 that he would be sitting in an assisted living community, possibly roomies with our old resident genius?