How did the spreadsheet model hold up?

The end result was that the GOP (not the Democrats) had a two point partisan advantage.

I started at around two percent for the Democrats and ended up at one percent for the Democrats but apparently two percent was correct, just for the wrong side. This was not totally unexpected, but certainly at the high end of where I thought things could go in the election for the partisan breakdown. Either way, this is where we were at according to my numbers.

• D+2 - Harris + 1.90

• D+1 - Harris + 1.05

• Even - Harris + 0.16

• R+1 - Trump +0.72

• R+2 - Trump +1.58

According to the spreadsheet, I might expect Trump to win by around 1.6%. He is currently leading by around 3.3% but that will likely move. According to the NYT Nate Cohn needle, they project the final margin (based on what is left to count) will be around 1.5

So this was the first year I provided the range of partisan breakdowns and the calculations for each. I think it is the easiest way to make these sorts of determinations, rather than try to guess. I have been correct for several elections (or close enough) but would not have been in this cycle had I not added the clarifying calculations for all of the possible partisan breakdowns. Again, was the 2% GOP advantage a surprise? Yes. Was it a shocked so hard you fall off your chair surprise. No. But it was not my guess this year. So the model still appears to hold up, it's just the manner in which the partisan breakdown is established might need some tweaking.

All that being said, there was reason to suspect this. While 2020 had a plus one Democratic advantage, the 2022 showed a three point advantage for the GOP. Moreover the Gallup polling and registration numbers should have pushed the concept that the GOP would have a better turnout. I guess my own skepticism maybe was pushing me back towards the idea that the GOP might lose that advantage in another big Presidential race. Seems to be the case, but it also seems to be the case that the GOP is gaining momentum.

• 2016 +3 Dem

• 2020 +1 Dem

• 2024 +2 GOP

Perhaps this is a foreboding of good things to come.