Harris' polling lead slip sliding away

Almost everyone is moving quickly, with the exception of my own spreadsheet which is now showing a possible larger Harris popular vote victory than the aggregate pollsters

Here is where we are at:

(note, numbers have changed from when this was first published)

• 538 has dropped to 2.1% (2.0%)

• Silver has it at 2.5% (2.3%)

• Hill/DDHQ is now at 2.4% (2.3%)

• Cook is at 1.8%

This is a far cry from where we were at a couple of weeks ago with everyone showing Harris with at least a three point lead and Hill/DDHQ up over four points.

I saw this little tidbit on X from "interactivepolls" on the latest polling from Activote:

Whether we believe that Activote is a legitimate polling company or not, the trends here are telling either way. In just over a month, it shows Harris losing 7.6% of support. Obviously this is a outlier example, but shows the extreme that some pollsters are seeing with the latest polling momentum for Trump. But this particular X member shows almost nothing but bad news for Harris and good news for Trump across the board. National polls, state polls, betting outlets, etc.

More information now please:

Now of course, polling is polling is polling, and the other bit of news you will be reading about is early voting numbers. Since early voting generally favors the Democrats, you will see a lot of Democrats demanding that they are winning the early voting battle without the context of what is the historical trend. I saw a post from someone tracking very early Pennsylvania numbers showing that more Democrats had voted early so far (we are talking a small percentage of what voted in 2020 absentee or early). Keeping in mind that in 2020, only 24% of the early vote came in from Republicans, it would seem odd to gloat when the numbers they show today has Republicans coming in at 29% of the overall vote. Yes, there are way more Democrats than Republicans voting early, but Biden inexplicitly won 76% of early and mail in votes in 2020 in Pennsylvania. If 29% of the early votes end upcoming in from the GOP then there is no way that Harris will win that same 76%. Nobody expects that suddenly the GOP will win the early vote totals. The question is how it compares to 2020.

The poster went on to say that the Democrats were already over half way to the 400,000 vote firewall they need to offset the election day voting yet Biden won the early vote by 1.4 million in 2020. So we need to be careful when we look at these numbers and who is saying what. Many are simply uninformed.