Generic ballot shows trouble for Democrats?

Registration, money, and polling suggest Democrats are in for tough times.

Let's start with the obvious. There is no reason for anyone to take a generic ballot poll using all adults. 2026 will be a midterm election where a much smaller percentage of even current registered voters will be showing up to vote. There is little chance that any significant number of unregistered voters will decide to register for the first time and then vote. Moreover, it is probably not coincidental that the two best polls for Democrats are Reuters/Ipsos and CNBC who are both polling "all adults". At the end of the day, if you toss those two polls out, the advantage for Democrats falls to 1.5%. While we are still a way out from the next election, these are red flag numbers.

On top of all of this, the numbers have been moving against the Democrats. Emerson's last poll showed Democrats up two and the Economist showed the Democrats up five. None of this is good news for a Party that is facing an uphill battle in terms of seats up for play, money, and enthusiasm. They are now likely to lose seats in the redistricting wars as well, in spite of attempts Newsom and others to keep pace.

Meanwhile, there is a lack of direction for the Democrats. They seem split into three different categories.

• Those who want to double down on current policies because they believe it is the messaging (not the message) that turns off voters.

• There are those who simply believe it they need to "fight fire with fire" and become more aggressive even as they criticize Trump for being too aggressive.

• Then there are those who want to move to the middle and abandon many of these positions where polling shows them on the wrong side.

The problem is that there are bigger differences within the voting public than there even is in the Party itself. There seems to be way too many activists and special interest groups who simply will not let go of the wrong side of the 80/20 issues. They demand Democrats continue to push for trans-rights, support DEI programs, and fight for people like Kilmar Garcia. Meanwhile, I watch those liberal blogs (like politicalwire.com) where seems to believe that Democrats lose because they constantly bring a knife to a gun fight. They demand that you need more people like Newsom (who they see as an anti-Trump) stepping up to "fight harder". Then you have the pragmatists, who feel that the Democrats should be following the polls. They see the solutions being more about changing what the Party stands for. Lastly, you have many who feel that the Party needs to do little more than wait for the country to realize just how bad Trump is. They believe that they can just wait for the country to implode and be seen as the de facto saviors when that time comes.

The bigger problem is that even these groups are not consistent. You have some who believe that better messaging walks hand in hand with being more aggressive. You have those who believe that the media and Republicans are distorting views and that Democrats may not even hold the views that others believe are sacred. You have those who believe that following the polls doesn't require them to change their positions, as much as massaging the messaging. Lastly, those who are waiting for the country to implode seem to blame the media and Democrats for not pointing out that (in their minds) it already is imploding.

Meanwhile Trump is playing everyone. While not everything he does is working, not everything is 4D chess, the majority of what he has done is at least marginally popular. Moreover, the entire concept is to force Democrats to take positions that will likely be attacked during the 2026 campaign. He has successfully made Democrats take unfavorable positions on DEI, trans rights, deporting criminals, crime, taxes, spending, and most recently he has brought up voter ID. Trump is expected to sign an executive action demanding national Voter-ID. Trump probably realizes that this will hit legal snags, but it will force Democrats to defend voting without an ID (a hopelessly unpopular position with most Americans).

This leads us to possibly the biggest issue for Democrats. Trying to ignore the underlying position that Trump is taking and instead attacking him for the process. Trump is a dictator, Trump is a fascist, Trump is a king. But while Democrats are throwing a fit over the process, it still looks to many Americans like they are fighting to keep DEI and Trans rights alive. It looks like they are against any cuts to spending or taxes. They look like they are against any attempts to close the border, to deport illegals, or to prevent crime. We will now see Trump make Democrats look like they are against making people show ID to vote.

The process thing will certainly work with the hardcore Anti-Trump Americans, a number that might make up 30-40 percent of the country. These are the ones holding up silly signs about they do not want kings. But for other Americans, they just might be more worried about the specific issues being addressed than how Trump is getting it done. It would be one thing if Trump was pushing issues that didn't have overwhelming support, but that is exactly what he is doing. Fascists are generally not popular because they use their power to do unpopular things. A leader who pushes popular things using questionable means can be seen as a revolutionary or a visionary, rather than a fascist.