GDP numbers expected to be good!

We are currently looking at a Q3 consensus of around 3% growth that will follow the 3.8% of Q2.

So ironically, about 40% of the American public believes we are in a recession, which by definition is two quarters in a row of negative GDP. Of course the concept of a recession is almost considered normal economy these days as it would appear that many believe we are in a constant state of recession that never actually ends. This just suggests that the word has very little meaning anymore with most Americans. In fact, it would appear that a recession happens for many anytime the wrong person is elected President.

Of course, two quarters of 3% growth or more is actually substantially good and about as far away from "recession" as you can actually be in today's economic reality. We are also seeing wage increases that are actually exceeding our inflation, something we have not consistently seen in some time. This suggests that our buying power should be increasing, even as most are suggesting the opposite. Of course, for many, there is an expectation that we should see negative inflation (or prices coming down) and to some degree that might be on Trump, who did campaign on that very subject. But other than gas prices (which have come down) and things like eggs (which are also down) the overall price indexes are always going to go up a little. That is just reality. However, a situation where wages outperform inflation should be seen as a net win, but some are expecting better than that. They actually want to see a decrease in pricing.

On the flip side there is a labor market concern that seems to be tied at least in part to the removal of so many immigrants and the cuts to the Federal government. Many are suggesting that jobs that generally would be going to immigrants are apparently just disappearing and we are still seeing continuing cuts to government jobs. Not sure if this explains everything that is happening, but the overall unemployment rate seems to be creeping up. We started the year around 4% unemployment, but currently the rate is peaking now at 4.6% for November. The labor market is the main reason the Fed is seeing pressure to keep reducing rates rather than keeping them as they are. If not for the job market seemingly a bit weak, the Fed may very well be holding off any rate cuts. Based on this logic, they are still not doing enough. Either way, the labor market seems to be weakening and I saw today someone describe it as a job recession, which of course is not a real thing but sounds ominous. Sometimes, you cannot hate the media enough.