Gavin Newsom says he is not running for President...

What he states makes a whole lot of sense...

CHUCK TODD: Filing deadlines haven't passed. President Biden doesn't run, why shouldn't we consider you a likely candidate?

GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM: Well, I think the vice president is naturally the one lined up and the filing deadlines are quickly coming to pass and I think we need to move past this notion that he's not going to run. President Biden is going to run, and looking forward to getting him reelected. I think there's been so much wallowing in the last few months, and handwringing in this respect. But we're gearing up for the campaign. We're looking forward to it.

Part of what makes a Newsom run more complicated is the close relationship he has with Kamala Harris. Right, wrong, or indifferent many of the powers to be in the Democratic race seem to believe that Harris is the heir apparent to Biden if Biden decides not to run. I would even go so far as to say that if Biden wins a second term that a Kamala Harris run in 2028 may even be a foregone conclusion. Newsom seems intent on not blowing up that relationship. Perhaps he is looking for a cabinet position or something that might help his chances down the line. He is still fairly young by Presidential candidate standards. So there may just be "less" incentive for Newsom than other Democrats to run against Harris if Biden drops out.

What we have also heard from many Democrats of "color" is that if Biden does not run and Harris is passed over for another White Male, that there will be hell to pay. There has been, still is, and will continue to be a fairly large group of black influencers that would turn a diss against Harris into a very ugly affair. With all the problems Democrats are having right now with non-White voters, I find it hard to imagine that they want that sort of fight on their hands. Newsom cannot win any more than Biden can win if they do not pick up the normal 85% or more of the black vote. Perhaps running another black person for President is the only way they can keep that number where it is at.

Again, we are running up against time here. While the Presidential election is still nearly 14 months away, filing deadlines for Major Party candidates to be on their ballot for the primary season are only a month or so away in some states. In other words, if Joe Biden is going to drop out of the race and for the Party to have some semblance of an actual primary season, now is the time to do it. Every month Biden waits, makes finding an alternative all the more problematic, especially considering that there isn't even any scheduled debates at this point in time.

As I have repeatedly stated. Joe Biden will be the nominee if Joe Biden wants to be the nominee. Democrats have effectively decided long ago that they can continue to circle the wagons and sweep all of the Biden corruption under the rug. In many ways, to push Biden aside at this point would undermine the credibility of everyone who has sided with slow Joe and demanded illogically that Joe and his clan are as clean as the driven snow.

While there are those who would love to see Joe step aside to say... spend more time with his family, I am still skeptical that will happen. More to the point, the more time that goes by with the incumbent being the only real candidate running, the harder it would be to legitimately replace him under the rules set forth by their own Party and each state in the union.

There seems to be some working assumption that a Party can simply decide to just hand a nomination over to a random person who was not part of the primary process, just because they want to. I am not saying this is not possible, but it would require a brokered convention where no declared candidate receives a majority of the votes and it would require that power brokers decide to push delegates to vote for a new candidate who was not running. My working assumption is that such an event would likely piss off a lot of people and tear Party unity apart, especially if one of the other two candidates currently running started to gather a following and was not given the nomination. Moreover, I believe that the alternate almost has to be Harris, unless Democrats really want to feel the wrath of the Black Caucus politicians and black voters already being pushed away.

In other words, if Democrats really want to push Biden out, they better do it in a hurry. Otherwise they are looking at a serious clusterfluff if they do it later in the process.