Five day ceasefire in Middle East?

US is said to be talking to Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf about a potential deal.

Well, this has set off the usual rounds of criticism for anything Trump decides to do. As much as the left didn't want us bombing a home country to their sacred Islamic terrorist political base, they will now criticize that we are backing off? You know, whatever the bad orange man does is wrong, even if he does what you wanted him to do ten minutes ago.

Now I suspect that there is currently a power struggle going on in Iran between military, political, and religious leadership. To some degree, whomever the world decides to acknowledge may end up with the upper hand in winning that power struggle. By the world, I mean whomever the US decides to acknowledge which will likely be whom the rest of the world acknowledges. Right now they are leaning away from the military leadership and the religious leadership, which makes some sense to the degree that the politicians are ultimately who you want in charge.

On the flip side, if they (as suggested) speaking to a politician, that is why you hear the Iranian military and religious leaders acting as if they are unaware of these meetings and claiming that there are no talks. It is clear that much of the world wide media is listening to these people as well. I suspect that both groups may continue to act as if they are in all out war if they do not feel included in these conversations. That being said, is there really a way to get all three factions in line here?

I am skeptical that this ceasefire (or whatever it is) will last. While I am happy that they are talking to someone and seemingly getting somewhere, I am not sure it will bring and real consensus or lasting peace. Again, you will need to either completely eliminate the Mullahs and the military or defang them to get this to work. I question whether or not the parliament has the muscle in this case to get any of this to be the law of the land, unless the people with guns decide this is who and what they want to back. I would put the five days of ceasefire lasting five days at about 50/50. I would put a real deal worth the paper it is signed on slightly better than a snowballs chance in hell. This is going to be messy and take some time here.