Et tu, Bloomberg?

Harris drops an average of almost three points in the Bloomberg battleground state polls

Bloomberg has been a consistently miss to the wide left pollsters for several cycles. They recently (Sept) had Harris leading in six of the seven battlegrounds states and tied in Georgia. They had her up by seven points in Nevada and five points in Pennsylvania. I am sure that Harris fans (especially Silver and the 538 gang) were licking their chops waiting on these latest Bloomberg polls so they could still show Harris with a lead in the battleground states. But I have gut feeling it landed like the thump.

Here was the story on Goddard's Political Wire site:

There you have it. Dead heat among likely voters. If Trump were to win the states they have him leading (Georgia & North Carolina) or tied (Arizona & Wisconsin) then he wins the election. In other words, Bloomberg is pretty much showing that Trump is as favored to win as he is to lose right now. Interestingly, they have her leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, which are three states where most pundits suggest that Democrats are struggling with the early voting numbers (particularly Nevada and Pennsylvania). So not sure I would even feel good about that.

The buzz from the Harris camp is that Georgia might be a lost cause, Arizona is becoming a big problem, and North Carolina is slipping away. They have always suggested that they have a Pennsylvania problem, but were hoping to offset that by winning North Carolina or Georgia. It now seems more likely that they could hold on in Pennsylvania than winning down south. But then they still need to hold both Wisconsin and Michigan, which they are trailing in both the RCP and Hill/DDHQ polling aggregates.

Meanwhile, the betting odds are not too far off where they were in 2020, when Biden had a 63.8 to 35.4 lead over Trump. Currently Trump leads Harris by 60.9 to 37.6.