Democrats win across the board in off year elections.

Republicans winning any of these races would have been an upset, but most everyone expected these to be closer.

There was some buzz that GOP Gubernatorial candidate Ciattarelli in New Jersey had a decent chance to win. He lost by double digits. Jay Jones (who was down in every poll) fantasized about killing Republican children, wanted cops to be killed, and even kicked a dog yesterday in public, and still won by six points. California passed their proposition to change their election maps by twenty seven percent. It would appear that a large number of early voters in California had no idea what they were voting for, but they overwhelmingly voted yes because they were told that yes was good (for either position). From some exit interviews, many who voted yes thought they were voting to keep the bipartisan commission in place (not the other way around). But alas, that is what happens when your electorate is as dumb as they are in California.  

In every way, these mid-cycle elections went poorly for the Republicans.

This really feels like a broken record. Republicans simply cannot perform in these off year elections. Gone are the days of the GOP holding the high propensity voters while the Democrats had to struggle to get out the vote. Today the highest propensity voters appear to be the affluent white liberals who seem constantly triggered and motivated to vote in every election possible. They may just get together and make up elections for the fun of it. They seem that motivated. But the expectations that this particular off year election will be better for the GOP seems fairly futile for the immediate future.

Was the shutdown an issue? It certainly was in Virginia where there are tens of thousands of government employees who are no doubt upset about the shut down, the layoffs, and overall dismantling of the deep state. I am not sure if it was a defining issue in New Jersey where the GOP underperformed. We all know there is no GOP in California to speak of.

Either way, it is hard to dismiss how poorly the GOP did, but it is also worthless to speculate if this actually has any harbinger for the 2026 election.