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Democrats telling GOP that they are crazy to nominate Trump...

Are just projecting their own fears that he could win again in 2024


Donald Trump is currently running ahead of his 2020 polling numbers against Biden by 9 points.


As in he was running behind in 2020 by over 7 percent in the RCP averages and is currently running ahead of Biden by nearly 2 points in 2024.


He lost the 2020 election in three states by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.6%. There is not enough funny accounting and late night counting in the world that would make up this sort of change, if in fact these numbers hold. Wisconsin has already had rulings regarding the how the 2024 election will be run, and Georgia laws have been changed to prevent any of the shenanigans we saw in 2020. If you doubt as much, think that Brian Kemp won the governorship by 8 points. Not sure he would have done so under the old laws that allowed counties all power to do whatever they pleased counting the votes. While there is nothing anyone can do to fix the fiasco that is Arizona and Maricopa County, I still find it hard to imagine anything can mess with a 9 point swing.


I feel to some degree that this is a little like the Hillary Clinton deal for the GOP. We all know that Donald Trump pretty much "only" beats Hillary Clinton in 2016. Effectively any other Democrat probably wins in a landslide. But Clinton (with all her baggage) was given the nomination and then lost. While many conservatives welcomed the opportunity to compete in a year they had no business competing in, they were understandably leery of Clinton becoming President. Many conservatives (if given the choice) would rather have seen a more palatable Democrat running than Hillary, even if that significantly raised the chances of a Democrat ending up in the White House. I am thinking that this is where many Democrats are. They would much rather see anyone but Trump running, because even a small chance of Trump winning is enough to send them over the edge. In other words, if there was a 70% chance of a moderate Republican winning the election and a 20% chance of Trump winning, they would choose the moderate every day of the week and twice on Sunday. They hate Trump that bad.


Make no mistake. 2022 was a problem for many reasons, one of which was Trump backed Candidates losing winnable races. But much of that would have been avoided had it not been for the reversal of Roe v Wade and Abortion taking front and center in most of those races. Moreover, I am not sure many Trump specific voters are willing to turn out for someone who is not actually "Trump". He is a cult of personality, but I am not convinced he has coattails in an off year election. Those 2022 problems could be erased with Trump at the head of the ticket, rather than just promoting from the sidelines.

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2 comentários


Membro desconhecido
15 de abr. de 2023

I don't necessarily disagree Balls... but it is what it is and there looks to be a pretty good chance we will see a repeat of 2020. If given the choice between the 78 year old Trump and the 82 year old Biden..


Well that seems like a no-brainer!

Curtir

Membro desconhecido
15 de abr. de 2023

As for me, I do not want to see a presidential debate between a 78 year old and a 82 year old. Trump was a good president. But I think we must move on.

Curtir
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