Democrats have a Senate problem moving forward

Susan Collins is the last remaining GOP Senator in a blue state

The GOP will go into the next legislative session with a 53-47 Senate seat advantage. This will include the aforementioned Susan Collins, as well as Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and the newly elected David McCormick in Pennsylvania. Every other Republican Senator comes from a red state that Donald Trump won three elections in a row.

Now some might argue that North Carolina remains a purple state, and that Democrats have won some state-wide races there. But it is definitely trending red, and the GOP currently holds a 60% or so advantage in both the State Senate and State House. Either way, the two seats in North Carolina is the closest thing that the Democrats have right now for possible long-term pickups other than Collins and eventually Ron Johnson and David McCormick in those actual purple states.

Meanwhile, when you look at the combined Senators from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, the Democrats hold ten of those twelve Senate seats (Johnson, McCormick being the other two). That means that the GOP will have chances to pick up ten seats in the upcoming elections, while the Democrats will have chances to pick up two (or four if you want to toss in North Carolina). We are not talking just the 2026 election but looking ahead for several cycles.

How does this look in the simplest of terms:

• GOP has 48 seats in fairly safe red states

• GOP has 50 seats if you include North Carolina

• Democrats 38 seats in fairly safe blue states

• That leaves either 12 or 14 purple seats in play depending on whether you include North Carolina

So where does that leave us in the immediate future?

First, Susan Collins is up for reelection in 2026. She has not indicated if she plans on running or not. If she does, she probably holds the seat for another six years. If she does not, then that is pretty much an automatic pick up for the Democrats. She would be 74 years old in 2026 and would be 80 by the time she was done with another term.

In Georgia, Jon Ossoff is also up for reelection. With Governor Brian Kemp looking at being term limited out of the Governorship, smart money is on him to make a Senate run. If not Kemp, then SOS Brad Raffensperger would be the likely candidate. Either would be heavily favored over Ossoff. So this would likely offset a potential Maine pickup for the Democrats.

Other interesting races in 2026 would be:

• Jodi Ernst (R) in Iowa

• Tina Smith (D) in Minnesota

• Thom Tillis (R) in North Carolina

• Gary Peters (D) in Michigan

Most other seats are going to be relatively safe. New Mexico and Colorado are the next in line for the GOP to take a shot at. Kansas, Texas, and Alaska would be the next in line for the Democrats to shoot for. But those would be long shots.

In fact, I don't believe that the Ernsts seat will be in play or even the Tillis seat. But look for the Democrats to go hard for both of those, and of course the Maine race. They would need to win all three and then keep the Ossoff Georgia seat, as well as the Smith and Peters races just to set things back to 50-50. That seems more than just a bit of a stretch. Even then, with Trump as President, the GOP holds the Senate.

At the end of the day, the Democrats will be hoping to draw into an inside straight in these purple or reddish-purple states if they want to somehow get back to 51 seats anytime soon. The other option is that they need to find more Joe Manchins or Jon Testers who can win in red states. But that becomes harder and harder as partisanship becomes more and more powerful. On the flip side, all the GOP would have to do is start playing the Democrats to a draw in these purples seats and they could find themselves comfortably ahead. A string of good results in those states could even garner them a filibuster proof majority.

Look for Democrats to stop talking so much about the electoral college and start complaining about the unfairness of the Senate.