But as a pollster, I was intrigued to see that the November elections pumped the brakes a bit on our previously widening political divisions. We didn’t move further apart; if anything, these elections produced a slight depolarization of our country along a number of fault lines, as 89 percent of counties in America shifted rightward.
The gap between how men and women voted shrank by three percentage points, a notable result in a campaign where some political experts expected a record gender gap. Voters under 30 years old and voters over 65 — two groups that were worlds apart in the 2020 presidential election, voting nearly 30 points in opposite directions — came closer together in 2024, around a dozen points apart in their preference for president. Of particular note was the lessening of racial polarization; while white voters remained about as supportive of Donald Trump this time around, nonwhite voters shifted over a dozen points in his direction.
The article goes on to suggest that on the subjects of the Government, big business, the media, and colleges, that both sides have become increasingly skeptical and less trusting. It seems like conservatism and a lack of trust in our institutions have brought a widening chasm slightly closer together. In many ways the left is starting to see things more like the right does, and this is the main reason why more people agree.
Of course, everything is a pendulum, and over the past few decades the left has really been pushing hard against conservatism, religion, and even to some degree patriotism. We have gotten to the point where many associate Christianity with conservatism, and even associate an American flag (whether it be on a house or on a car or just being carried) with a conservatism. Not too long ago I read a story about how so many liberals feel threatened and unsafe if a neighborhood has too many houses with American flags. The BLM signs or the Rainbow flags are now the flag of liberalism, pretty much replacing the stars and stripes as a way to express their loyalties.
But with any movement, especially those that harbor deep resistance, there will be push back and the pendulum naturally swings in the other direction. I feel like this is where we are at with a lot of our modern liberalism. The hard core liberals have become so engulfed into it that they demand everyone else is all in, or else. The problem is you can only push so far before people start wondering... or else what? Most people do not want to be judged 24-7 and they will decide to eventually live their own lives instead of trying to please the mob. Once they find themselves on the outside looking in, they realize that what they are actually looking at is not very attractive.
Of course, the whole MAGA concept and the goals of a second Trump administration is going to also be partisan and hardcore on the other side. Already we are seeing people pushing for the purity angle and trying to judge those who are not seen as pure of conservative as some would like it to be. If this continues, you will see most, if not all, of the recent conservative advances being reverses when the pendulum runs out of momentum. There are two sides to this reality. One will be those who want to put as much policy into place at the tallest height of the pendulum swing, while others will want to mitigate any potential backlash by being more moderate.
I would argue that policy that quickly becomes unpopular policy is wrong policy even if you can get it enacted. Case in point is the Biden Administration backing off on trying to include transgender athletes into Title IX. They seemed to move hard on all of this for some time, had success at the top levels forcing biological males into female sports by executive rule, only to find that the pushback was more than the policy was worth. Same seems to be true with the idea of transitioning children into the opposite sex and pretty much anything transgender related. They won many early battles in court and in policy by brute force, only to loose the war at the ballot box. Conservatives need to take heed about pushing purity issues that are unpopular with the broad cross-section of Americans and not make the same mistakes.
So for now, for this moment, we can all take some credit for standing firm against the insanity of the past few years, and be happy that things are now moving back to the conservative direction. It is a good thing that more people are starting to see things the same way, especially when that is the way many of us has been seeing it for some time. Better late than never. But everyone should be cautious that this is just another cycle and how our leadership and how the movement reacts will tell exactly how powerful or inept this particular cause will be.
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