Trump gains in CBS poll, Harris sort of gains in ABC
Trump had been down three in the CBS/YouGov poll and now is down by one. They also show the battleground states as even at 50-50.
In the ABC/Ipsos poll, Trump had been down by three points and is now down by four with likely voters. Trump was down two points in both samples for registered voters.
So while CBS found a two-point swing for Trump, ABC basically found a one-point swing for Harris in how they account for likely voters. The article even suggested that they suddenly found over the past two weeks that Harris voters are even more likely to vote along with some amazingly crazy demographic swings from just two weeks ago that don't appear to match the top lines.
I am becoming less and less enamored by Ipsos polling the more I dig into them. Right now, RCP will only count one Ipsos poll at a time. So when ABC/Ipsos comes out, they replace the Reuters/Ipsos poll that also shows Harris with a three point lead. I sort of now understand why they do this. Between Ipsos and YouGov (who polls for CBS) I currently have seven different polls in my 55-poll average and not a one shows Trump in the lead. Overall, those two pollsters show Harris up over three points on average.
Either way, when these two polls were added (along with the daily TIPP tracking poll) to 538, Harris' lead dropped from 1.4 to 1.3, so they are apparently not as impressed with these two polls as some others are out in the liberal circuits. I will be curious if these are their "final" polls as the NYT/Siena suggested it was. RMG is already done polling as well. I seem to believe it might be a little early in the cycle to stop polling, but I sort of also like the fact that some of these pollsters are not going to fish around on the last few days looking to make last second noise.
For the most part I have only seen one national poll (FOX/Beacon) that showed a Harris lead in the Battleground states. I have seen several showing Trump leading and the latest HarrisX had him up six points in the Battleground states. Obviously, the election will be won or lost in those battleground states, so a national polling lead is not as important as the battleground state numbers. On the flip side, these are smallish samples when you are looking at the crosstabs for seven states. The past two Presidential elections have shown a two-three point difference between the national vote and that in the battleground states, with Trump doing better in the battleground states. It has largely been argued that Kamala would need to win the popular vote by three points or more to secure the Electoral College. If some of these polls are now correct, that number is no longer accurate. If that number is accurate then some of these polls are wrong.
So what is up in the upcoming polling scene? For starters, I have to wonder if there are any WaPo polls coming out (as they used to poll with ABC). I am also wondering when we will see NBC/Hart, Marist, Quinnipiac, and possibly Pew. They all seem due for a poll over the next few days, and they all tend to lean to the left. So we might see a little bit of a liberal biased polling wave over the next week that may or may not be offset by the tracking polls and a few others. Technically the CBS and ABS polls are part of that group as well. Liberals suggest that when a series of bad polls come out for Harris, that the right-wing pollsters are flooding the zone. I wonder if they would argue the same thing if a series of better polls for Harris all string together.
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