The rollercoaster continues with odds on Gavin Newsom falling off the face of the earth, leaving only Biden and Harris in double digits and within two points of each other!
They say that a week can be a lifetime in politics. The past week or so has been a whirlwind and one has to wonder what the next week will bring. However, there is just over six weeks to go before the DNC convention and less time than that before some states will require the Party to provide the names of the nominee.
Ohio, for instance, called a special session that will provide Democrats a chance to perform a virtual rollcall prior to their August 7th deadline, which is just over four weeks from now. But with the nomination up in the air and some in the Democratic Party calling for an open convention, it would seem unlikely that Ohio would call another special session to accommodate an open convention that would be two weeks beyond their required date.
Update: After some research, the formal virtual roll call is actually scheduled for July 21st and would be valid for all 50 states. This would make sure that the Democrats would have their official candidates prior to the drop-dead dates set forth by all states. Other states that require the candidate information before the actual convention include California, Maryland, North Carolina, and South Dakota. Several other states, including Washington have dates that fall in the middle of the convention, meaning that could also toss more problems into the mix.
It is doubtful that Democrats could wait till the convention and still be able to submit their candidates to these states, under the current laws. While it may be possible for these states to change their laws on the fly, that just tosses a whole other can of legal worm into the middle of everything. Would Democrats take the chance that they might have to offer a write-in option for states such as California, Washington, and Maryland, possibly bringing those states into play if things go sideways?
The debate fiasco came just in time to do "something" about it, but not really enough time to restart the nomination process. Joe is correct that he has already won the nomination and perhaps that was why they agreed to an early debate but just not too early as to affect his delegate count. If that virtual roll call goes forward as planned, then we are only two weeks away from Democrats having to make a choice. If they end up going to the convention and Joe is still in the race, then they still face the problem that he might end up the nominee, and they may not be on the ballot in several states.
Another fine mess...
I am still in the camp that it is unlikely that Biden will step down, but not nearly as certain as I was pre-debate when I figured the chances of him being the nominee was 99% plus. He is way too stubborn and there are enough people (like the Governors) who claim to be backing him for him to still believe he should be the guy. He also got public support from President Clinton and President Obama after the debate which certainly must be a positive for him. Moreover, nothing in his interview, or stump statements, or strategy has suggested he is thinking about stepping down. You do not commit to a $50 million advertising blitz if you are still contemplating whether or not you are the candidate. Meanwhile, the movement of key Party officials to step up and publicly call for his stepping down is tortoise-like slow, with only five members of Congress willing to make a public statement on the matter. That is not enough to convince someone like Biden to humiliate himself by admitting he cannot beat Donald Trump.
The real question is whether or not Democrat will do the unthinkable and either remove him under the 25th amendment and/or figure out a way to change the rules of the convention to replace him, while hoping these states figure out a way to accommodate the late date. I don't see how they hold any sort of virtual rollcall and not name Biden as the nominee at this point. It would have to be someone like Harris, and it would have to come with Biden's blessing. Otherwise, they are screwed.
As it stands, many states have laws that "require" their delegates to vote for the candidate who won at least through the first vote at the convention. Those who understand these things suggest there would be enough legally committed delegate to put Biden over the top unless rules were changed. Certainly, I do not believe that Democrats would be above changing the rules to get around that, but I would have to wonder how it plays out legally and whether they want to turn their convention into that sort of chaos. Way too many issues involved here folks.
I still think it is up to Joe and time is running out faster than we are being led to believe.
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