Most still show Trump as the favorite, but a slew of last weekend polls are pushing the averages just a bit
RCP and the Hill still show similar numbers as they have. Both still show Trump ahead in Pennsylvania (as does 538 and Silver) but both 538 and Silver has moved PA towards Harris ever so slightly. A dump of low quality and obscure polling over the last weekend along with rumors and bravado being pushed by various party insiders and pundits always seems to garner more attention than they should. The reality has not changed at all because of any of this. As the old saying goes, people lose about 25 IQ points during the last few days of an election.
Nate Silver still suggests Trump is slightly ahead, the Hill/DDHQ still shows Trump winning by 54% while the economists now show Harris winning 52% of the time. The betting odds are still showing Trump with an 18-point lead there. What seems strange here is that it took Trump 3-4 weeks of good polling to move these needles. It took about two days of decent polling for Harris to move it right back. Last time Harris led in the 538 model, they showed her slightly ahead in all of the rust belt states and closer to even in Georgia and North Carolina. Now they seem to get to the same numbers with weaker Harris polling?
Meanwhile the national polling keeps moving towards Trump while the battleground state polling is either not moving or even moving in Harris' direction by smallish amounts. Silver still shows only Michigan and Wisconsin moving in Harris' direction, but there is now limited movement for Trump in the other states. Meanwhile, Hill/DDHQ only shows Harri by 0.1% nationally while RCP shows Trump ahead nationally. Given the three-point partisan advantage for the GOP in those Battleground states. it's hard to imagine Trump doing better nationally than he would in those Battleground states. That wouldn't just be an aberration, but a rather large one. Biden won those Battleground states by under a percent (0.89%) while winning the popular vote by 4.5%. Clinton lost those battleground states, while winning the popular vote by just over 2%. There has been a consistent edge for the GOP in those states precisely because of the fact that there is about a 4-5-point advantage for them in those states as compared to the nation as a whole. It is why everyone suggest that the Democrat must win nationally by 3-4 points to win the electoral college. This axiom has seemed to become forgotten as everyone gets caught up with how close all the polling is. My guess is that one or the other is likely still wrong. Either national polling is overstating Trump support, or the battleground states are overestimating Harris support.
Either way, not time to get caught up in all the last-minute hype. There is no fundamental difference between how this election was a week ago and how it is today.
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