Trump now over 50% in three head-to-head polls against both Biden and Harris.
One argument against Trump has always been that he has a low ceiling of support. Generally, that ceiling has been places at around 47% or so (which is where he was in both 2016 and 2020). The strategy suggested that if the Democrats could keep those pesky third-Party candidates off the ballot that they could almost guarantee victory, because Trump simply does not have the support to win two-way race.
But recent polling has shown that Trump no longer is stuck at that 47% ceiling, at least not in head-to-head matchups. Against Biden, Trump has hit 52 once and 51 twice. Against Harris, Trump hits 52 twice, 51 once, and 49 four different times. Even in five-way polling with a decent number of undecided voters, Trump has been bumping up against that 47% number in many polls.
To be clear, if Trump gets anywhere near 50%, he wins in a landslide. If he can improve his sub-47% results in 2016 and 2020 by even a point or so, then he likely wins comfortably. Whether the nominee is Biden or Harris (anyone else is a longshot in my opinion) either would have a lot of work to do. Biden is barely polling at 40% as the incumbent, which of course is why everyone on the left wants him gone. Those are horrible numbers for any incumbent. Harris is polling at just over 43% in the 23 polls she has been included in post-debate, and those are all head-to-head polls. Anyone who sees this as some sort of position of strength for the alternative is fooling themselves.
As much as the left wants to blame Biden for their plight in the polls, clear headed analysis would have to suggest that Trump has grown as a candidate and in popularity since 2020. This seems to be the blind spot for many of these liberals looking to toss old geezer Biden off the ballot and apparently into a nursing home.
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