The problem is the Party, leadership, their platform, and their ideology.
I have seen way more of these polls showing Biden outperforming Harris than those showing Harris outperforming the President. I think we are up to fifteen or sixteen polls now since the debate that include Harris and Biden and there still only three I believe that show her running ahead of Biden.
On another polling note, there doesn't seem to be much movement from the post-shooting polls, although it might be a little early to know. We will also have to see if the convention moves the needle at all. There was a time when a good convention was worth a five point bump or more, and it was always a topsy-turvy time when you had the two conventions. There was a bump one way and then a bump the other and you never really knew what has truly going on until long after both conventions were over. Sometimes you saw one or the other bump stick and a good or bad convention could change the outlook of the race. Now I am not so sure they matter as much, likely because people in general are not glued to their televisions as they once were. Those people who do watch, will watch them through the lens of their favorite biased network or forum. Those who do not watch them will simply go to their echo chamber to be told what to believe about them.
This race has been pretty static, with only marginal movement on events that would otherwise have completely unhinged a race. So far we have had one of the two candidates convicted of a felony, one of them prove themselves during a debate to be cognitively impaired to the point of dementia, one of them survived being shot in an assassination attempt, and only sliver of the American public have seen moved much by any of it. My overall polling average was sitting at Trump up by 2.5% prior to the Trump conviction. After everything else that has happened, Trump now leads by 3.3% which is not even a point difference. Even within the 40 plus polls I am tracking, you cannot find any consistency regarding these events. Some even found Joe Biden gaining after his debate performance. I think the electorate is pretty set in their ways and the amount of true swing voters is diminishing election by election.
At the end of the day, Democrats are fooling themselves by tying their electoral issues to their incumbent President and thinking that things will just get better if they have a fresh face at the top of the ticket. Things are way to set and way too complicated for them right now and there is no easy fix.
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