Adding a new feature to the polling spreadsheet

Going to include different demographic breakdowns to show how it could turn out based on different demographic breakdowns.

So right now, my spreadsheet is being calculated by the idea that Democrats will have a turnout advantage of just under two points (36.4 - 34.6). This is based on a historical average of the previous elections.

But what would happen if that turned out wrong?

I know that 1.8% advantage for Democrats is actually on the high end based what most are projecting. In 2020, the Democrats had a single point advantage in voter turnout. If that turns out to be the case in 2024, then Harris would be looking at a 1.64% popular vote cushion based on the spreadsheet calculations. If the two parties come out evenly, then we are looking at a smallish Harris popular vote victory under a percent. Not enough to win the electoral college by all accounts.

Meanwhile, some pollsters seem to believe that the GOP might actually have an advantage (as they did in 2022). If that turns out to be the case, then Trump likely wins the popular vote as well and will win the electoral college fairly easily. I am including a one percent advantage and the less likely two percent advantage (hey, you never know).

Either way, no harm in more information. From here on out, the spreadsheet will calculate the projection as it has been (combination of averages from previous elections). But will also project what happens if that turnout model is incorrect.